Monday, October 29, 2007

NFL Betting: Washington Redskins vs. New England Patriots


If you have bet on the New England Patriots this season to cover, you are swimming in money. The Pats have been on a dominant run unseen in the NFL in years, if ever, winning each of their seven games by at least 17 points, setting an NFL record for consecutive victories by that total to open a season.

You would think oddsmakers might give the 4-2 Washington Redskins at least a fighting chance this Sunday in Foxboro, right? Wrong. WagerWeb.com lists Washington as a whopping 16-point betting underdog.

"All the talk about the Patriots is deserved," Redskins coach Joe Gibbs said. "You've got a football team right now that's on pace to set almost all of the modern records."

Gibbs called his team big underdogs, and Patriots QB Tom Brady said, "I think he's blowing smoke. I promise you that he's not telling his team that."

Brady's bunch will try to not look ahead to next Sunday's mammoth clash with fellow unbeaten Indianapolis. His offense has yet to score fewer than 34 points in a game, and the Pats are on pace to set the single-season NFL scoring record (they are averaging 39.9 points and 432.9 yards per game).

Brady, with 27 touchdown passes after throwing a career-high six last Sunday, will shatter that record of 49 by Peyton Manning if he maintains that pace.

"Their quarterback has thrown for 27 touchdowns, and we don't even have 27 touchdowns," Redskins RB Clinton Portis said. "We've just got to find a way to exploit our talent."

The Patriots have yet to see a defense as good as Washington's, which ranks third in scoring defense (14.7) and is fifth in total defense (276.8) and eighth in passing defense (196.2).

They've improved tremendously, especially on the defensive side of the ball," Pats coach Bill Belichick said. ". . . Their pass defense, their run defense, their scoring defense - you name it. It's right at the top of the league in pretty much every category. They're very fast."However, Washington's offense is not much to shout about. Running back Clinton Portis is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry and hasn't reached the 100-yard mark since last season. In addition, QB Jason Campbell's 78.5 rating puts him 25th among NFL quarterbacks. In fact, the Redskins are one of only two teams without a touchdown pass to a wide receiver this season.

Campbell has thrown five TDs to go with five interceptions, and he goes against a New England defense that's tied for the NFL lead with 10 interceptions and tied for sixth with 19 sacks.

In addition, Pro Bowl defense end Richard Seymour could return to New England's lineup for the first time this season.

"They have (talent) all the way across the board," Gibbs said. "You hate to see them get somebody back that's a high-quality guy, too, to add to it. Not a pretty picture."

Look for the Redskins to run, run and run with Portis and Ladell Betts. But don't be surprised to see a trick play or two and for Campbell to at least take some deep shots.

The lowdown: Brady has beaten every NFL team as a starter except Washington (4-2). New England has won eight straight against NFC opponents, and is 24-4 versus the opposite conference since the start of the 2001 season. That record includes three Super Bowl victories. For what it's worth, the Pats have lost six straight games to Washington dating back to 1972. That will change on Sunday, although I look for Washington to cover - barely.

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