With defending Big Ten men's basketball champion Ohio State losing four starters (including Greg Oden) from last season's national runner-up finish, it seems only natural that a different school will ascend to the top of the conference this season.
And that team will be Michigan State.
The Spartans were picked as the preseason Big Ten favorites by the media, with Indiana second and Ohio State third. MSU is also the WagerWeb.com favorite to win the Big Ten at +150.
Why Michigan State? The Spartans were young last season yet still won 23 games and advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. All five starters return, led by Drew Neitzel, the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year favorite.
He becomes the first Michigan State standout to earn preseason player of the year accolades since Mateen Cleeves was voted as the coaches' pick in 1999.
Neitzel, a senior, averaged 18.1 points and 4.3 assists per game last season and was the Spartans' only consistent threat. Despite that, he shot 41.2 percent from 3-point range and a league-best 87.9 percent at the foul line. He finished fourth in the league in scoring and was fifth in assists. Neitzel was tops in the conference with 3.3 threes per game, fifth in assist/turnover ratio and second in minutes played.
Travis Walton will start at guard opposite Neitzel.Walton was the lone Spartan to start all 35 games last season and is one of the best defenders in the conference. He led the Spartans in steals (ninth in the Big Ten) and assists.
Sophomore Raymar Morgan will be Michigan State's No. 2 threat. The forward 11.7 ppg last season but 14.0 ppg over the final 10 games of the season. Power forward Marquise Gray played in all 35 games last season - including 22 starts. He posted 6.8 points and 5.5 rebounds despite averaging just 18.7 minutes per game, and he shot 57.8 percent from the field. Goran Suton (9.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg) rounds out the returning starting five.
Indiana coach Sampson said he would agree with Michigan State being tabbed No. 1 over his Hoosiers in the Big Ten because of the experience factor.
"The difference between Michigan State and Indiana right now is that they have five starters back," Sampson said. "A lot of our impact guys are true freshmen or first-year junior college kids. I think Michigan State is going to be really good from day one, whereas with us I think it will be more of a gradual process."
In addition, Michigan State brought in one of the nation's top 15 recruiting classes in guards Chris Allen and Kalin Lucas and swingman Durrell Summers.
"I like the higher expectations," Coach Tom Izzo said.
"Last year, we had none. That's good for one year, but you don't want a steady diet of that."
The lowdown: Coming off that 23-win season and a trip to the second round of the NCAA Tournament speaks wonders about Izzo's coaching in what was thought to be a rebuilding year. Now, with an infusion of backcourt speed - not to mention the occasional rest for Neitzel - Michigan State will run like Izzo clubs of the past. The Spartans certainly should rule what is an average Big Ten beyond themselves, Indiana and Ohio State. But can the Spartans reach their fifth Final Four (1999, 2000, 2001, 2005) under Izzo? If the freshmen contribute and the frontcourt holds its own, yes.
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