If you had Rockies-Diamondbacks as your NationalLeague Championship Series matchup before the season, well, I don't believe you.
The unlikely matchup of two young, NL West rivals begins tonight with Game 1 in Phoenix. Colorado ace Jeff Francis takes the mound against 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner Brandon Webb of Arizona.
The Rockies will follow this leadoff match with Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Fogg and Franklin Morales, which the D-backs will counter with Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez and Micah Owings.
Both teams come in hot, with both sweeping their NLDS series. And the Diamondbacks played well down the stretch to hold off the Padres for the NL West title to claim the best record in the NL.
But the Rockies' hot streak is one of historic proportions, with 17 wins in 18 games. Colorado had to finish 13-1 just to earn a one-game playoff with San Diego, winning that and then sweeping the almost equally hot Phillies.
"We started to win and the more we were winning, the more we were realizing that things were unfolding in front of us,"said infielder Jamey Carroll. "We were playing, having fun and knowing that there was a chance. We just had that nothing-to-lose attitude because nobody was expecting much from us."
"You can just look back through history and it will tell you how improbable it is,"said first baseman Todd Helton, playing in the postseason for the first time in his 10-season career.
This is the first NLCS to match teams coming off Division Series sweeps since 1997, when the Marlins and Braves got past the Giants and Astros, respectively.
And these teams know each other well. Including spring training (the two train blocks apart), Colorado and Arizona have met 22 times this year -- with each team winning 11 times (Colorado won the regular-season series 10-8).
"We know those guys. We know everything about them,"Arizona's Conor Jackson said. "We've faced their pitchers, faced their bullpen numerous times. When I go up there to hit, I know what I'm going to get.
One big difference would appear to be on offense. The Rockies led the NL in batting average, and the Diamondbacks were last.
The Rockies' 2-3-4-5-6 lineup alignment of Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe includes three 100-RBI players and a fourth with 99, and three .300 hitters and two more over .290. In addition, Colorado activated center fielder Willy Taveras from the disabled list, and he could return to his starting spot and help add more speed to the lineup.
The Diamondbacks start four rookies and are the first team in 101 years to lead a league in wins while finishing with the worst batting average.
Pitching may favor Arizona, however. Yes, Game 1 starter Webb was only 1-3 with a 5.77 ERA against the Rockies this season, but Webb is the only pitcher to beat Colorado in the last 25 days. On the final weekend of the regular season, the right-hander was stellar through seven innings in Colorado as the Diamondbacks clinched a playoff berth. Thus, Arizona is a -133 WagerWeb.com favorite for Game 1.In addition, Game 2 starter Davis posted a 3.18 ERA against Colorado in three starts this season, and Game 3 starter Hernandez had a 1.54 ERA in five starts against the Rockies in the regular season.
Colorado's Francis is 7-2 lifetime against Arizona with a 3.54 ERA in 14 starts, but he lost that final weekend game to Webb. And the Rockies are going with rookies Jimenez in Game 2 and Morales in Game 4. The Rockies were hoping to get Opening Day starter Aaron Cook back for the NLCS. But they chose to stick with right-hander Fogg over Cook. Fogg was 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA in four starts against Arizona this season.
"It's two teams that nobody knows about playing, right? Isn't that the headline?"Arizona's Jackson said. "But you know what, one of those teams [is] going to the World Series."
The lowdown: This is almost too close to call, with Colorado the -135 series favorite on WagerWeb.com.
Both teams were 50-31 at home, both below .500 on the road. Colorado has the offensive advantage, with Arizona the pitching advantage. The bullpens are about even. "These are two evenly matched teams in my opinion,"said Rockies MVP candidate Matt Holliday.
That they are, but the bet here is Colorado in 7.
Series Schedule (all times Eastern):
All games on TBS
Today: Colorado (Francis 17-9) at Arizona (Webb
18-10), 8:30 p.m.
Friday: Colorado (Jimenez 4-4) at Arizona (Davis
13-12), 10:15 p.m.
Sunday: Arizona (Hernandez 11-11) at Colorado (Fogg
10-9), 8:30 p.m.
Monday: Arizona (Owings 8-8) at Colorado (Morales
3-2), 10:15 p.m.
Wednesday: Arizona at Colorado, 8:30 p.m.*
Oct. 19: Colorado at Arizona, 8:30 p.m.*
Oct. 20: Colorado at Arizona, TBD*
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