There are so many Breeders' Cup races this weekend I didn't know where to start. I began handicapping last week to get a jump on the 11 races spread over two days beginning Friday at Monmouth Park.
Ah, then the changes began: injuries, withdrawals, switching races, etc. It's not easy being a horseplayer in the fall when the BC rolls around.
I've had some pretty awful years handicapping the event. Several years ago I suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous misfortune, selecting only one of eight winners.
My best year came in 1999 when I covered the BC at Gulfstream Park in South Florida, my old stomping grounds. I had several winners, a couple of exactas and a trifecta.
That was then and this is now. So I'm going to concentrate on what I consider the two most competitive races.
There are some so wide open you better hope Lady Luck is in your corner. For instance, the inaugural BC Juvenile Turf at a mile on Friday had the most pre-entries that included four 2-year-olds that never ran on the grass and seven that had three or fewer outings.
I liked Old Man Buck because of his two wins on the grass. But trainer Ken McPeek opted for the Juvenile even though the son of Hold That Tiger ran sixth in his only trip on dirt.
The three top horses, all with turf experience, appear to be: Bill Mott's Prussian, undefeated in two routes, boasting the best Brisnet speed figure at the distance.
Michael Maker's Cherokee Triangle, working well since destroying seven others by more than 10 lengths at 1 1/16 miles at Louisiana Downs.
Todd Pletcher's The Leopard, impressive winner by nearly three lengths in his turf debut at Belmont Park on Sept. 29.
The deepest field is Saturday's BC Sprint on Saturday. Eight of the 14 horses have three or more triumphs at six furlongs while nine have won at least once in '07 at the distance.
Quite a few handicappers believe the post-time favorite will be Bob Baffert's Midnight Lute off his speedy seven-furlong triumph in 1:21 in Saratoga's Forego on Sept. 1. However, I've found horses that consistently win at six furlongs perform much better. I like Idiot Proof who zipped six furlongs in 1:07 2/5 beating Greg's Gold in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita and broke the track record for the same distance in the same time in Monmouth's Jersey Shore. Completing my trifecta is Smokey Stover, victorious in all five of his outings at six furlongs, including a triumph at the host BC track.
The most anticipated race is the BC Classic featuring six Grade 1 winners. The hottest of five 3-year-olds: Any Given Saturday, who defeated Hard Spun and Preakness winner Curlin in Monmouth's Haskell.
The top older horse: Lawyer Ron, winning two stakes with the highest speed figure before losing by a neck to Curlin in Belmont's Jockey Gold Cup.
The winner: Kentucky Derby/Travers/winner Street Sense, who captured both stakes after hitting the board in preps on synthetic surfaces. His final prep before the Classic, a second-place finish on a syntetic surface.
Friday's other BC races:
Filly and Mare Sprint at six furlongs: It's a two-filly battle between 3-year-olds La Traviata, 3 for 3 with a victory at Monmouth, and Dream Rush, 2 for 3 at the distance.
Dirt Mile: Because of Monmouth's track configuration, the race is a mile and 70 yards. Gottcha Gold, 3-2-0 of 5 in routes at Monmouth, edges Discreet Cat.
Saturday's other BC races:
Juvenile Fillies at 1 1/16 miles: Spin the guess wheel. Half a dozen can win it: A to the Croft, Cry and Catch Me, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell, Smarty Deb and Zee Zee.
Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles: Champagne champ War Pass is the colt to beat. Pyro and Z Humor, second and third in the same stakes, could get lucky.
Filly and Mare Turf at 1 3/8 miles: Too close to call. The contenders are unbeaten Nashoba's Key, 7 for 7 (4 for 4 on grass), Honey Ryder, Danzon, Lauhudood and Wait a While. Longshot possibility: Precious Kitten, 3-3-0 of 6 on turf.
Mile Turf: Foreign invader Excellent Art will do well even if showers fall while After Market, Remarkable News and Trippi's Storm could complete the superfecta.
Distaff at 1 1/8 miles: Unbridled Belle and Ginger Punch fight it out with Indian Vale, 6-1-0 of 7 at the distance.
Turf at 1 ½ miles: English Channel, 2 for 2 on Monmouth's grass and last year's Turf runner-up, battles Irish-bred Dylan Thomas, 3 for 4 at the distance and winner of this year's L'Arc de Triomphe. Don't count out Better Talk Now, '04 winner and '06 runner-up.
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