Sunday, October 21, 2007

MLB Betting - Indians vs. Red Sox in game 7


First the good news: The Cleveland Indians have a chance to win the American League Championship Series tonight despite their two aces, C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, being pounded in this series. And the Tribe will do it behind Game 3 winner Jake Westbrook and against Game 3 loser and struggling Daisuke Matsuzaka.

The bad news? Momentum is clearly on Boston's side after two straight lopsided victories. In addition, Boston has won six straight elimination games in the ALCS dating to its 2004 series against the Yankees, and 7 of 8 in ALCS elimination games dating to Game 6 of the 2003 series against the Yankees. And Sunday marks the anniversary of one of the most memorable games ever played at Fenway Park: Carlton Fisk's walk-off homer in Game 6 of the 1975 World Series.

So what does that give us for tonight's Game 7, with the Red Sox -168 favorites on WagerWeb.com?

That likely depends on Matsuzaka.

"After the last few games, I believed I was going to have a chance to throw again,"said Matsuzaka, following Boston's 12-2 rout over Cleveland in Game 6 on Saturday night. "My teammates kept insisting I would have another chance."

In Boston's Game 3 loss, Matsuzaka lasted just 4 2/3 innings for the second straight start, this time giving up four runs on six hits and throwing 101 pitches.

But his teammates are believers that Dice-K will show up big in his biggest start in America.

"I believe based on his makeup, based on his demeanor,"fellow starter Curt Schilling said, "he's going to do something special [in Game 7]. As far as what I would say to him, there's not a whole lot to say -- win. Just go out and win. I'm expecting him to come up huge."

If Matsuzaka does struggle at all, don't be surprised to see Josh Beckett pitch a few innings. The Red Sox's ace, who shut down Cleveland in Games 1 and 5, says he will be ready in the bullpen."Obviously, I'm preparing myself for them to ask me that,"Beckett said after his outing on Thursday. "As of right now, yeah, I think that would be something I could do."

The Indians counter with Westbrook, who took a four-hit shutout into the seventh inning of Game 3 before giving up a two-run home run to Jason Varitek.

He still ended up the winning pitcher in the Indians' 4-2 victory.

However, Cleveland's No. 3 starter is winless in his past five road starts, dating back to regular season (0-2, 3.82 ERA); he is 1-1 career at Fenway Park, having allowed six runs and 15 hits in eight innings in only win there (Aug. 3, 2006).

"I think, for me, it's just a matter of having a good game plan, sticking with it, making some good pitches when I need to make them and do the best thing that I can, which is keep them off balance."

Westbrook, like Matsuzaka will have plenty of bullpen helping waiting if needed. Game 4 starter Paul Byrd will be available in relief.

"It's all hands on deck,"Byrd said. "Everybody who is eligible will be available. Everybody who is available will be in the bullpen. It will be a big party out there."

Don't know about a party, but there's nothing better than a Game 7!

The lowdown: All signs point to Boston finishing things off. The Red Sox were one of the best home teams in the league, and Westbrook isn't as consistent on the road. Plus, Travis Hafner, arguably the Indians' most dangerous hitter, is in a massive slump: 3-for-23 in this series (.130) and 7-for-39 this postseason (.179). "Hey, it's coming down to Game 7 against the two teams that won more baseball games than anybody in the regular season,"Cleveland manager Eric Wedge said. "That's the way it should be."Boston will finish off yet another incredible series rally and get back to the World Series for the first time since ending the curse in 2004.

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