Sunday, October 21, 2007

MLB Baseball Odds - ALCS On The Line for Game 5


Well, the Boston Red Sox's season is surprisingly on the line Thursday night in Cleveland, with the Indians able to close out the American League Championship Series at home with a three games to one series lead after winning three games in a row.

But, hey, there's always next year, says current Red Sox, and former Indians, slugger Manny Ramirez.

"Why should we panic?"he said Wednesday in a rare clubhouse interview. "We've got a great team.

"(If) it doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."

Manny being Manny is always humorous. But you can bet Red Sox Nation isn't ready to look to next season yet, not with ace Josh Beckett on the mound tonight to save Boston's season.

The 20-game winner has pitched like it in two postseason starts (2-0, 1.20), shutting out the Angels in the Division Series and allowing two runs in six innings to the Indians in Game 1 of the ALCS. Beckett has three career postseason shutouts, but he is only 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA in two career starts in Jacobs Field. In his only start at Cleveland this season, he gave up one run in eight innings of a 1-0 loss.

Beckett's career postseason resume is unreal: 57 1/3 innings, 4-0 record, 1.87 ERA and 62 strikeouts.

"I don't think he fears anything,"says Boston third baseman Mike Lowell. "He doesn't want to give up a hit out there. Runs aren't even an issue."

Beckett says he can't explain why his playoff numbers are so much better than his regular season ones.

"I'm more focused on what I need to do, execute pitches."Beckett says.Reports surfaced Tuesday night that Beckett, who came out of Game 1 despite having thrown only 80 pitches in six innings, had some back stiffness that may have entered into the team's decision to start Tim Wakefield in Game 4, but pitching coach John Farrell said the decision had been made only for precautionary reasons and he should be 100 percent tonight.

Beckett will be countered by the Indians C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia was magnificent in the regular season (19-7, 3.21 ERA) but has struggled in the playoffs (1-1, 10.61), including a loss in Game 1 of this series in which he allowed eight runs, seven hits and five walks in 4 1/3 innings. After walking 37 in 241 regular-season innings, he has walked 11 in 9 1/3 postseason innings, and he has more walks than strikeouts (eight). In his only regular-season start against the Red Sox in 2007, Sabathia went 0-1 with a 1.29 ERA. But he was 11-3 with a 3.13 ERA at Jacobs Field this year.

"I was disappointed in the first game in Boston that I wasn't able to keep us in the game,"Sabathia said.


"That's something that I've been able to do all year.
I didn't even give us a chance the other day. ... I just didn't make pitches. I got into some tough situations and didn't deliver."

After losing the opener, the Indians took the momentum with a 13-6 win in 11 innings at Fenway Park. They won the next two games in Cleveland behind their third and fourth starters, Jake Westbrook and Paul Byrd. The Red Sox have scored in just two of the last 24 innings - a total of five runs.

"We just got hot at the right time,"Sabathia said.
"It doesn't matter how you play during the season. It matters how well you're playing right now."

Much of the Boston lineup is struggling in this series. Julio Lugo is batting .143 (2 for 14), Coco Crisp and Dustin Pedroia are hitting .188 (3 for 16), and J.D. Drew has no extra-base hits or walks in the first seven games of the postseason. Drew likely will be replaced by Bobby Kielty for Game 5.

Meanwhile, the Indians have again been getting the timely hits since Game 2, led by shortstop Jhonny Peralta who is slugging .824 in the ALCS, the result of his two three-run home runs and two doubles.

"With the confidence we have playing right now, we're going to do it on Thursday,"said Indians reliever Rafael Betancourt.

The lowdown: The ALCS has been 3-1 on 14 occasions; the team with three victories won 10 of the previous 13 series. The Boston franchise owns two of the three comebacks: from 3-0 to the Yankees in 2004 and from 3-1 to the Angels in 1986. Boston is -127 on WagerWeb.com to win Thursday night and get the series back to Boston, but I'm not sure Beckett is truly 100 percent. And Sabathia is due, so I look for the Indians to join the Rockies in the World Series.

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