Friday, February 29, 2008

NBA Odds - Jazz vs. Hornets


Two of the more-overlooked Western powers headline Friday's NBA action when the Utah Jazz head to New Orleans to face the Hornets, who are 4-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.

The Jazz lead the Northwest Division by 2.5 games, while the Hornets sit a game back in the Southwest Division. New Orleans, however, enters Friday one spot ahead (No. 3) of Utah in the West overall standings.

Utah needs to show it can win on the road at a good team - the Jazz have lost three of their past four on the road and have the worst road record (12-18) among the NBA's top 14 teams.

Utah has lost at bad teams Minnesota, the Los Angeles Clippers and Sacramento in the past few weeks and allows 104.6 points per game on the road this season, nearly 10 more than it yields at home.

However, the Jazz have owned the Hornets this season, winning in two blowouts in Salt Lake City - 99-71 on Nov. 23 and 110-88 on Feb. 4.

Turnovers were one big reason for those losses - in the first meeting against the Jazz, New Orleans turned the ball over 18 times, and in the second meeting it committed 19 turnovers. The Hornets average 12.5 per game.

And in both games, Hornets point guard and MVP candidate Chris Paul had sub-par games against Deron Williams, who was picked one spot above Paul in the 2005 draft (No. 3 and No. 4, respectively).In the first meeting, Paul had 15 points (six below his average) and six assists (five below his average), and Williams had 12 points and seven assists. In the second meeting, Paul was plagued by foul trouble and had just six points (shooting 3-for-11) and six assists. Williams had 29 points (making 11-of-13 shots) and 11 assists. The Jazz made a franchise-record 14 3-pointers in 22 attempts.

New Orleans is only 1-7 in Paul's career against Utah and Williams, the league's two best young point guards. Williams ranks fourth at 9.7 assists a game and is averaging 19.2 points a game. Paul ranks second with 10.8 assists, is averaging 20.8 points and leads the NBA with 2.7 steals a game.

"From a physical talent standpoint, they're both on par with the best point guards who have ever played,” ESPN analyst Greg Anthony says. "I always think of Magic Johnson as an exception because he was a different animal from everybody else.

Both teams are coming off impressive wins - Utah over Detroit and New Orleans over Phoenix, which ended the Hornets' three-game losing streak.

During New Orleans' three-game slide, Paul averaged just 7.7 assists, more than three fewer than his season average of 10.8. The Hornets are 29-8 this season when he has at least 10 assists.


ATS

Utah New Orleans
Record: 37-21-0 (.638) 38-18-0 (.679)
As Favorite: 31-13-0 (.705) 28-11-0 (.718)
As Underdog: 6-8-0 (.429) 10-7-0 (.588)
At Home: 25-3-0 (.893) 19-10-0 (.655)
On Road: 12-18-0 (.400) 19-8-0 (.704)

NBA odds: Mavericks at Spurs


A potential Western Conference finals preview and one of the NBA’s better rivalries headlines the NBA action on Thursday night when Dallas travels to San Antonio, with the Spurs 4.5-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.

The Spurs, who are a half-game ahead of New Orleans and a game in front of Dallas in the Southwest Division entering Thursday, will be going for their seventh straight win and fourth in a row at home, where they are 23-5 this year.

But this will be a new Dallas team that San Antonio will face. The Mavericks are 3-1 since point guard Jason Kidd's arrival, though all three victories came against teams likely lottery bound and the loss was to New Orleans. In those four games, Kidd has averaged 8.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 11.3 assists, 3.8 steals and has revitalized Dallas' transition offense and passing game. The Mavs have scored at least 98 points in those three wins.

"We're fully aware Dallas just added a Hall of Fame player to their club," said Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. "And that makes them even better."

The Mavs’ offense still revolves around Dirk Nowitzki, who has averaged 31.5 points and 9.3 rebounds in the last six games and is shooting 60.9 percent in the last four. Dallas could use a healthy Josh Howard, who has shot 29.3 percent in his last four games and has scored more than 20 once in his last eight games.San Antonio will see another new Maverick in addition to Kidd, as the Mavs, in part to make up for the loss of DeSagana Diop in the trade for the point guard, signed 6-foot-11 former All-Star Jamaal Magloire on Wednesday.

Magloire will debut tonight after signing for a pro-rated share of the league's $1.03 million veteran minimum. The 29-year-old was waived by New Jersey on Friday after the trading deadline passed. Yes, Magloire only managed to get into 24 games for the Nets, averaging a mere 1.8 points and 3.4 rebounds, but he gives Dallas a big body to bang against Tim Duncan and the other West big men.

San Antonio’s best player of late hasn’t been Duncan but Manu Ginobili. In his last three games, he has averaged 29 points, 6.3 assists and 3.7 rebounds, in spite of a 13-point game in his last outing. He made 14 of 23 3-pointers in those games. He is averaging 24.8 points per game during 12-game streak as starter.

"If you don't get Ginobili under control, you're going to struggle," Dallas coach Avery Johnson said.

Meanwhile, Spurs forward Kurt Thomas made his San Antonio debut in Monday’s win over the Hawks, grabbing nine rebounds. Thomas was acquired last week from Seattle.

The Spurs have won 10 of their last 11, allowing an average of 87.1 points over that stretch while retaking the Southwest Division lead.

This is the third of four matchups this season. Both teams have split a pair of meetings so far, while Dallas has won four of five and five of the last seven against San Antonio. And the Mavericks have won three of their last four trips to San Antonio.

March Madness odds: Michigan State at Wisconsin


The Michigan State Spartans simply must get a quality road win before the end of the season to feel good about their Big Ten and NCAA Tournament hopes, and No. 19 MSU (22-5, 10-4 Big Ten) has a chance for one of those important wins tonight at No. 10 Wisconsin (23-4, 13-2).

While the Spartans are invincible at home (16-0), they have won just five of their past 22 Big Ten road games and have lost five straight at Wisconsin, which is a 5.5-point favorite on WagerWeb.com. And MSU hasn't beat a ranked team on the road since defeating 19th-ranked Ohio State in double-overtime in '06. (The Spartans beat No. 20 Brigham Young in Salt Lake City on Dec. 8, but that was technically on a neutral court.)

State also must win tonight if it has any remaining hope of winning the Big Ten crown. The Spartans have four games remaining to try and catch the Badgers, No. 12 Indiana and No. 16 Purdue, but making up two games is unlikely.

Michigan State needs wins tonight and against the Hoosiers on Sunday to have a chance at a share of the regular-season conference title.

"I can't think of a better time to go into Wisconsin," said State coach Tom Izzo, who acknowledged his team is confident. "We're about as good to go as we can be."

The Spartans, however, will be trying to become just the third Big Ten team to win in Madison since Bo Ryan took over. In seven seasons under Ryan, Wisconsin is 105-7 at home.

"Hopefully, we can go in there and make the first move and get the crowd right out of it," MSU forward Goran Suton said. "Even if the crowd is into it, we still have to do a good job of settling down and running our team.

The Spartans, though, have won back-to-back games after consecutive losses to ranked teams. Izzo gave some credit for two blowout wins over Penn State and Iowa to Magic Johnson, who told his fellow Spartans to make more low-risk passes instead of spectacular ones.Michigan State committed just five turnovers vs. the Hawkeyes. It was the fewest amount of turnovers committed by the Spartans since March 13, 2004. MSU is 4-0 this year when it commits under 10 turnovers.

"I think that would hit home from a guy who was considered the greatest decision-maker ever," Izzo said of Johnson's pep talk. "I said, 'Why don't you talk to them by yourself so if they want to complain, let them complain.' It turned out great because they didn't and he talked.

"He was real with them. He didn't sugarcoat anything, from what I told, and he didn't sugarcoat anybody."

Wisconsin, meanwhile, is averaging just 12.8 turnovers, but committed 15 in a 58-53 win over Ohio State on Sunday. The Badgers, who would claim at least a share of the Big Ten title if they win out, won their fourth straight with a physical defense that is allowing just 55.3 points per game - which is first in the Big Ten and second nationally. Opponents are shooting just .387, which is second in the Big Ten.

The Spartans, meanwhile, are second in the Big Ten in scoring offense at 72.8 points.

Wisconsin is led by Brian Butch, who averages a team-high 12.3 points and 6.8 rebounds. The 6-foot-11 senior center will at times be battling in the paint with Michigan State forward Raymar Morgan, who paces the Spartans with 15.2 points and 6.3 rebounds per contest. (MSU is 21-2 this season when it outrebounds its opponent.)

Wisconsin and Michigan State split two games last season before the Badgers beat the Spartans 70-57 in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals on March 9. Michigan State leads the all-time series 66-56.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Golf Odds - PGA Honda Classic


The PGA Tour stops in Palm Beach Gardens this week for the first of four events on the Florida Swing: The Honda Classic at PGA National.

Mark Wilson won the 2007 Honda in a playoff against Jose Coceres, Camilo Villegas and Boo Weekley for his first PGA Tour title.

In a field that doesn't include Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson or Vijay Singh but does have a strong international contingent, Wilson (+4000 on WagerWeb.com) certainly could defend his title. He has finished in the top 35 of every event he has played this year but one - with a high of ninth at the FBR Open.

"I've had some success there and try to keep my expectations low but know that I played well there the year before. And hopefully the people in Palm Beach will be behind me and remind me of my good play the year before, and I'll try to feed off of that," said Wilson, who ranks 27th on the money list with $435,599 and is in the top 25 in driving accuracy and greens in regulation.

All three runners-up will return this week as well, but only Weekley has played regularly since the start of the season and has two top-10 finishes.

While American Justin Leonard (+1700 on WagerWeb.com) is the highest-ranked player in FedEx Cup points set to tee it up this week, look for a winner to come from the international group led by Ernie Els, Justin Rose, Angel Cabrera, Luke Donald, Retief Goosen and Sergio Garcia. While Americans have won 28 of 34 editions of the Honda Classic, foreign-born players have captured six of the last 14, and international players have figured in the top two in four of the last six.

Els is coming off a humiliating 6-and-5 first-round loss in the Match Play. He is playing his first Honda Classic since 1999 and is the WagerWeb.com favorite this week at +650.

"I think it's a golf course that I can do well on," Els said. "I feel like I'm striking it quite nicely and I just want to play some solid golf now.

"Some people can easily get on your case a little bit when things aren't going so well," said Els, whose last victory in the U.S. was the 2004 Memorial tournament. "But I don't ever take any notice of that. I've just got to keep fighting and keep working hard on my game."

Two off-the-radar Americans to watch are Davis Love III and Mark Calcavecchia, who both have five top- 0 finishes at the Honda Classic in their careers. Calcavecchia has won twice and been runner-up on two occasions, while Love has never missed the cut and finished second in 2003 and '04.

LPGA TOUR: The HSBC Women's Champions in Singapore features a stellar field; only winners from tours around the world were invited to play, leading to a field that consists of the top 15 players in the world rankings and 18 of the top 20.

And for the first time this year, Annika Sorenstam, who has a victory and a fourth-place finish already, and world No. 1 Lorena Ochoa will be in the same event.

Ochoa is the overwhelming favorite at +180 on WagerWeb.com, with Annika second at +600.

NBA Odds - Cavaliers vs. Celtics


A potential Eastern Conference finals preview headlines Wednesday's NBA action as the Cavaliers face the Celtics for the final time in the regular season, with host Boston -8.5 on WagerWeb.com.

Cleveland comes in off a tough loss at Milwaukee on Tuesday night when the Bucks' Michael Redd hit a long 3-pointer at the buzzer for the victory despite 35 points from LeBron James; James leads the league in averaging 30.2 ppg.

LeBron, the likely MVP favorite now, has averaged 35.4 points on 51.2 percent shooting in his last nine games vs. Boston.

Tuesday's loss was the Cavs' first in three games since acquiring Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West at last week's trade deadline.

With that new foursome, it may make the season's previous three matchups with Boston a little irrelevant. The Cavs have already beaten the Celtics twice this season in Cleveland, but in their lone appearance in Boston, they lost by 10 points on a night they played without James.

Speaking of LeBron, he needs 19 points tonight (a lock) to reach 10,000 for his career - a feat that, at age 23, would make him the youngest player in NBA history and ninth-fastest player overall to score 10,000.

Cleveland was playing Tuesday without starting center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who sat out because of an upper respiratory infection. Anderson Varejao started in place of Ilgauskas, but picked up his third foul with just over four minutes remaining in the second quarter. Varejao finished with six points, six rebounds and five fouls in 25:28.

Ilgauskas traveled with the team to Boston but is questionable tonight; Varejao likely would get another start if he can't go.

The game will kick off a five-game homestand for the Celtics, who won the last two games of a five-game road trip against Western Conference teams after suffering their first-three game losing streak of the season."Those first three games, I don't want to say it was the (All-Star) break, but it was kind of sloppy," Paul Pierce said. "But the last two games we turned it around, and hopefully we can carry it over.

And the Celtics figure to benefit in facing a Cleveland team that will be playing its third game in four nights.

"It's a big game for us and a big game for Cleveland," Celts coach Doc Rivers said. "They have a bunch of new guys, and they've had the best (of the Celtics). They've owned us so far. They're up, 2-1. We've got to come in and put a good effort in. It's a tough game, flying back and playing in that game, but we have to be ready."

Boston is an Eastern Conference-best 23-4 at home while outscoring opponents by an average of 15.7 points in those victories. They have won five in a row at home with Pierce averaging 23.8 points during that span.

Pierce, though, was erratic during the road trip despite finishing the five-game stretch averaging 20.4 points. The Celtics' leader with 20.6 points per game, Pierce had one of his worst shooting performances in Friday's loss to Phoenix, going 2-for-13 for eight points. He responded to that by scoring 30 points against the Trail Blazers before putting up 17 at Los Angeles.

Pierce hasn't been very consistent against the Cavaliers, averaging 14.0 points in three meetings this season.

The Celtics have lost nine of their last 11 meetings with Cleveland, with both wins coming at home.


ATS Cleveland Boston
Record: 32-25-0 (.561) 43-12-0 (.782)
As Favorite: 21-11-0 (.656) 39-9-0 (.813)
As Underdog:11-14-0 (.440) 4-3-0 (.571)
At Home: 17-10-0 (.630) 23-4-0 (.852)
On Road: 15-15-0 (.500) 20-8-0 (.714)

March Madness Odds - Mississippi vs. Kentucky


It's not often we will preview a college basketball game between two unranked teams, but Wednesday night's SEC matchup between Mississippi (18-8, 4-8) and Kentucky (15-10, 9-3) is an important one for both teams' hopes to get an NCAA Tournament bid.

Kentucky is certainly in better position for an at-large bid than Ole Miss despite the worse overall record.

The Wildcats have won eight of their past nine games, mainly because they are good on defense and excel in close games.

UK has trailed in the second half of seven of its SEC wins; eight of its conference wins have come by fewer than 10 points. And the Wildcats rank second in SEC play in scoring defense, allowing an average of 66.8 points. Still, they're being outscored in conference play, a product of so many close games coupled with a 41-point loss at Vanderbilt.

"Our defense has been pretty solid for most of the conference schedule," UK coach Billy Gillispie said. "I think that we're gaining steam as we go, and I think that we have a sincere desire to get stops. It's not easy to do and you can't always do it, but I think our team has really taken to that mind-set. But we have to do better offensively to be a better team."

Ole Miss, meanwhile, started the season 13-0 and reached No. 15 in The Associated Press poll, but they've struggled in SEC play, allowing 76.8 points per game. That ranks 11th in the league.

Ole Miss is 0-6 in conference road games, being outscored by an average of 11 points. That includes Saturday's 69-49 loss at Louisiana State.

The Rebels are 1-13 in Coach Andy Kennedy's short tenure on the road.

"Statistics have proven that you have to be better on the road, because you can't rely on external motivation," Kennedy said. "It all has to come from within, and that's what we're lacking a little bit, honestly."He adds that his team may have lost its confidence.

The Rebels shot 26.8 percent in that loss at LSU. That marked the puniest point total of the season and matched the largest margin of defeat.

"I saw some doubt," Kennedy said. "As a coach, it's a very uneasy feeling to be standing there and look at the players and see a little bit of doubt. I had to rethink the way I've been coaching them. I've never been a big pat-on-the-back, feel-good (type of coach). And I've got to change some way."

The good news for Ole Miss is that it is 6-3 against teams currently ranked in the RPI top 100 and a 2-1 against top-25 teams, which may help the Rebels earn their first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2002. The Rebels' record of 18-8 is the best mark through 26 games since that 2002 team was 19-7.

UK, which is 6-0 at home in conference play, is the only SEC team with three players of the league's top 10 scorers -- Joe Crawford (seventh, 16.8 ppg), Patrick Patterson (eighth, 16.5) and Ramel Bradley (ninth, 15.9).

Crawford, Patterson and Bradley average 64 percent of UK's total offensive output. In Saturday's win against Arkansas, they scored 33 of the Cats' 36 second-half points.

Kentucky holds a whopping 94-11 lead in the series, which began in 1925, and has won eight in a row. And UK holds a 44-2 series lead in Lexington.

Bet on NCAA basketball at WagerWeb.com

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Horse Racing Betting - Pick 3 a New Exotic Wager


Pari-mutuel wagering is fairly new compared to horse racing, whose modern origins date back to the 12th Century. That’s when English knights returned from the Crusades with swift Arab horses.

Over the next 400 years, a growing number of imported Arab stallions were bred to English mares, producing horses that combined speed and endurance.

Pari-mutuel wagering is only 143 years old. Pierre Oller, a Parisian chemist and perfume shop owner, invented it after a bookmaker friend asked him to devise a fair system for bettors that guaranteed a fixed profit for bookmakers. In French, pari-mutuel means “betting among ourselves.”

Oller came up with the system in 1865 to sell tickets and place all the proceeds in a common prize pool to be divided among winning bettors, minus a 5 percent handling charge.

The eventual large amount of calculation needed in the pari-mutuel system led to the automatic totalisator. English-born George Julius, raised and schooled in New Zealand, invented the machine in 1909. Four years later, 30 devices were installed at Ellerslie Racecourse in Auckland.

It wasn’t until ’32, and many other countries later, that 110 Julius machines were installed at an American track – defunct Hialeah Park.

I remember when Hialeah and other South Florida tracks only offered one type of exotic wager – the daily double. Now there are so many you need a scorecard if you’re betting an excess of exotics on one program.

One of my favorites is the Pick 3 for several reasons. For example, I believe it’s easier to pick the winners of three consecutive races than the order of finish playing a trifecta in a single contest.

Sometimes I do bet a $1 trifecta that costs $8: 1-2 with 1-2-3 with 1-2-3-4. But I must find a horse that’s better than 3-1 to include in the top tier.I often go for a $1 Pick 3 that runs anywhere from $6 to $18. A $6 ticket would be 1 with 2-3 with 4-5-6. A $12 ticket: 1-2 with 3-4-5 with 6-7. An $18 bet: 1-2-3 with 1-2 with 1-2-3.

I always look to single a horse in one of the races, but not the favorite for obvious reasons. However, I frequently use two horses in a couple of races, including a longshot in at least one contest.

In January, I played three Pick 3s at Gulfstream Park on one card and didn’t do bad. In the first Pick 3, I wagered $18. In the opening leg I included the third favorite that returned $16.80 and won $92.50.

In the next Pick 3, starting with the third race, I included the fourth favorite that paid $15 on the front end, but because the odds-on favorite scored in one leg, I only realized $59.60 for $12.

For a total investment of $36 in three Pick 3s, I earned $167.80 for a net profit of $131.80.

Remember a juicier return is guaranteed when the favorite fails to score in any leg. When there’s a heavy favorite that you decide can’t lose, don’t include probable choices in the other two legs.

Joe Kristufek, the Arlington Heights (Ill.) Daily Herald turf writer and oddsmaker for Arlington Park, points out:

“Defeating the favorite in the first leg of the Pick 3 or Pick 4 puts you in the driver’s seat. Players are often inclined to use the ‘chalk’ in the initial race of the series in order to stay alive. A 5-1 or 10-1 winner is often worth a lot more.”

Several experts say the Pick 3 is more attractive when the public is sure to overbet a horse you dislike or underbet a horse you adore. I agree.

Even more rewarding can be having an opinion in wide-open races because the odds are in your corner if you hit the Pick 3.

Horse Racing Betting - Horses to Watch


Horses worth watching, a list of runners compiled by handicapper/turf writer Greg Melikov that should do well next time out or improve considerably, won three races, ran second six times and finished third five times since Feb. 1.

AQUEDUCT

Ommadon’s Frenzy: Raced greenly in seventh more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, lost ground advancing in traffic to sixth into stretch, closed fast when clear to make up more than 4 ½ lengths and finished second beaten a head at six furlongs on Feb. 16.

FAIR GROUNDS

Doyline Bubba: Veered into third-place finisher leaving gate, trailed early, moved to eighth 9 ½ lengths behind after a half-mile, closed late making up 5 ½ lengths in stretch and finished second beaten 1 ½ lengths at six furlongs on Feb. 18; ran final quarter in 24 2/5.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Dynamalt: Raced eighth more than three lengths behind after a half-mile, lost several lengths launching five wide drive on far turn, closed steadily from sixth in stretch, made up more than three lengths and finished second beaten a nose at 1 1/16 miles on a good turf course Feb. 22.

LAUREL PARK

Honor Student: Broke a step slow, raced four lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, lost several lengths trying to advance around far turn, angled out from rail for drive, made up more than 5 ¼ lengths in stretch and finished third beaten a neck and a head at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 20.

OAKLAWN PARK

Splash of Bold: Broke 12th and last from post 11, trailed by more than 17 ½ lengths after a half-mile, advanced on outside to sixth in stretch, finished full of run to make up 10 ½ lengths and ran second beaten a half-length at six furlongs on Feb. 15; ran final quarter in 23 3/5.PHILADELPHIA PARK

Froggy: Broke sharply, led by a length after three-eighths of a mile, widened advantage through stretch under steady handling and coasted to victory by 10 ½ lengths at 5 ½ furlongs on Feb. 19.

SAM HOUSTON RACE PARK

Runaway Lil Bull: Broke slowly eighth and last, trailed by more than 7 ½ lengths after a half-mile, advanced five wide to fifth in stretch, made up nearly 4 ½ lengths and finished third beaten two necks at six furlongs on Feb. 22; ran final quarter in 24 1/5.

SANTA ANITA

Last Black Lion: Raced more than five lengths behind after a half-mile, advanced six wide to fifth in stretch, made up more than two lengths and finished second beaten a head at six furlongs on Feb. 20.

TURF PARADISE

Macho Irish: Raced outside more than four lengths behind in fourth after a half-mile, finished gamely to make up 4 ½ lengths in stretch and ran second beaten a neck at six furlongs on Feb. 20; ran final quarter in 24 2/5.

TURFWAY PARK

Gambler’s Honour: Raced 11 lengths behind in eighth and last after a half-mile, advanced in the three path on far turn, angled out for drive, closed fast late from fourth in stretch to make up more than 6 ¼ lengths and finished second beaten a neck at a mile on Feb. 22.

NBA Odds - Trail Blazers vs. Lakers


Pretty much nothing bodes well for the Portland Trail Blazers when the travel to Los Angeles on Tuesday night to face the Lakers, who are 15.5-point favorites on WagerWeb.com.

Let me count the ways:

*-Portland’s best player, All-Star guard Brandon Roy didn’t accompany the team to Los Angeles. He won’t play tonight against the Lakers or Wednesday against the Clippers because of a right ankle sprain that was aggravated Sunday.

The 6-foot-6 Roy, who is averaging a team-best 19.3 points to go with 5.7 assists and 4.9 rebounds per game, is reportedly aiming to return for Portland's rematch with the Lakers at home Friday.

Thus Portland coach Nate McMillan will juggle his starting lineup tonight, with Steve Blake starting at point guard, Martell Webster at shooting guard, Travis Outlaw at small forward, LaMarcus Aldridge at power forward and Joel Przybilla at center.

McMillan previously moved Jarrett Jack into Roy’s starting shooting guard position when Roy missed two games earlier this month in order to preserve the rotation.

But his he is using a bigger lineup by starting Webster at shooting guard and Outlaw at small forward. That move would give Webster his first start at shooting guard this year, and Outlaw” an important contributor in the reserve unit “his first start overall.”It’s coming at a bad time,” McMillan admitted. “It’s the hand that we’re dealt and it’s an opportunity for some other guys. We’ve got to grow up fast. It’s a huge challenge.”

*-Kobe Bryant will be fired up. Kobe was ejected from a game for the first time this season Sunday. He had 21 points and 10 assists in just 26 minutes before he was tossed in the third quarter at Seattle for arguing with official Brian Forte about a no-call.

"I'm disappointed, but I'm not going to comment on the official. I don't want to get fined anymore," Bryant said. "Watch the replay."

And Kobe usually torches the Blazers. He is averaging 38.0 points in his last 10 games against Portland.

And while the Blazers won their first two games against the Lakers last season, they lost the last meeting as Bryant scored an NBA season-high 65 points in the Lakers' 116-111 overtime victory. Bryant's 65 points were also the most ever scored against the Blazers.

*-L.A. is the hottest team in the NBA outside of Houston right now, on an eight-game winning streak. The Lakers have claimed the best record in the Western Conference with their longest win streak since taking 11 straight near the end of the 2003-04 season – the last time they reached the NBA Finals.

"Now we are in a situation where we can control our own destiny and that's important," Lakers coach Phil Jackson said.

*-Portland has lost seven of eight games to fall to 10th place in the West. And it is 8-19 on the road and has lost four of its past five in L.A. Best bet:


All those stats spell an L.A. cover.


ATS Portland Los Angeles
Record: 29-27-0 (.518) 39-17-0 (.696)
As Favorite: 16-7-0 (.696) 29-6-0 (.829)
As Underdog: 13-20-0 (.394) 10-11-0 (.476)
At Home: 21-8-0 (.724) 18-7-0 (.720)
On Road: 8-19-0 (.296) 21-10-0 (.677)

March Madness Odds - Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt


All of a sudden, the college basketball world revolves around the state of Tennessee.

After winning at top-ranked and unbeaten Memphis on Saturday night, the Tennessee Volunteers reached No. 1 in both polls on Monday for the first time in their 99-year history. UT is the 53rd school to hold the No. 1 ranking since the poll began for the 1948-49 season.

Yet the Vols won’t get much time to enjoy it.

”For us there will be little staying power because we have to go play at Vanderbilt on Tuesday where they have won 17 straight games,” said UT coach Bruce Pearl.

Indeed, the Vols (25-2, 11-1 SEC) will face another tremendous in-state test when they travel to Nashville on Tuesday night to face the No. 18 Commodores (23-4, 8-4), with Tennessee a 2-point favorite on WagerWeb.com.

With four regular-season games and appearances in the Southeastern Conference and NCAA Tournaments yet to play, the Commodores are within reach of the school's single-season record of 28 wins, set by the 1992-93 squad. Vandy has won six straight games and 17 straight at home.

”We feel like we have a big advantage here at home. We're looking to take advantage of that," Vandy’s Ross Neltner said.

This year's Commodores have also spent 13 straight weeks in the AP Top 25 rankings. That's two weeks shy of the 15 consecutive weeks achieved by teams in 1965-66 and 1973-74.

And Vandy knocked off No. 1 Florida a year ago and has won its last three meetings against top-ranked teams - what other team can say that? Plus it will have revenge on its mind, as the Volunteers defeated Vanderbilt 80-60 at home on Jan. 17."I'm not concerned with the ranking other than it makes the prize even bigger for Vanderbilt or any other team that will play us," Pearl said. "To have the opportunity to beat the number one team in the country is an opportunity that is not extended very often. I know it was a big factor for us in our preparation for Memphis. There was almost an air of 'everything to gain and nothing to lose (mentality).'"

Tennessee has lost three of its last four visits to Vanderbilt, although the last seven meetings there have all been decided by fewer than 10 points. Three of the last four have been decided by five or fewer.

"Of course, we know we're going to get everybody's best shot," Volunteers guard Raymar Smith said. "We've got to take it and deliver and step up. That's really what it's all about right now."

Vandy senior forward Shan Foster is coming off 29-point game against Georgia and is second in the SEC in scoring with 19.3 points per game and is the conference's leading 3-point shooter at 44.9 percent. A.J. Ogilvy checks in with 17.1 ppg, and the big rookie center is pulling down 6.9 rpg.

”We’ll take our chances at home against anybody in the country,” Foster said. “Our crowd is great. They come and bring that intensity every single game.”

UT likely will need more than the seven points it got from star Chris Lofton and 37.5 percent shooting against Memphis to win tonight.

Tennessee has played only Kentucky more than Vanderbilt; the Vols lead 106-66 since they started playing in 1922, with the Commodores holding a 49-35 edge in Nashville.

But this will mark the first time these teams have been ranked while playing in Nashville since Feb. 17, 1968. Tennessee was No. 7 and Vanderbilt ranked ninth.


Best bet: Take Vandy.

2008 MLB Odds - 2008 Yankees preview


We began our 2008 team-by-team previews with the Red Sox, so it’s only natural we follow Boston with its hated AL East rivals, the New York Yankees.

And much like in Boston, Johan Santana looms over the Big Apple. The decision not to trade for Santana was a calculated gamble. The Yankees chose not to give up two young starting pitchers (Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy) and center-fielder Melky Cabrera to get Santana, though none of that trio is firmly established at the major-league level. Now the Yankees (tied for second in the AL behind Boston at +500 to win the World Series at WagerWeb.com) need Hughes, Kennedy and fellow 2007 rookie Joba Chamberlain to be solid performers to make Joe Girardi’s first year as manager a success.

The Yanks also need Mike Mussina to return to 2006 form, Andy Pettitte to shake off the human growth hormone distractions and Chien-Ming Wang to remain one of the better starters in the majors.

Wang has quietly won 19 games in each of the past two seasons for the Yankees. In each season, he has posted an ERA below 3.75. He’ll win a bunch of games again this season, but the low strikeout totals are what keep him from being in the upper tier of starting pitchers. And he was blistered in last year’s playoffs.

Pettitte considered retirement before agreeing to return for one more year, and who knows how focused he will be with all this Mitchell Report/Roger Clemens stuff hanging over him. He did go 15-9 with a 4.05 ERA in 34 starts (36 appearances) last year, ranking ninth in the AL with 215 1/3 innings pitched.

"They're bringing me back not to be a fifth starter, but to try to help lead that staff," Pettitte said. "I knew I needed to make a decision, for the organization's sake and mine."Projected No. 3 starter Mike Mussina was 11-10 with a 5.15 ERA in 27 starts (28 games). Opponents batted .311 against the veteran, who lost his spot in the rotation after a series of poor outings in August but returned to log three consecutive victories in September duty.

Kennedy and Hughes are expected to start the year in the rotation, with Chamberlain (all of them under 25) retaining his set-up role early in the year to save his arm for starting around June.

Kennedy made just a few big-league starts last year and Hughes finished 5-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 13 starts before logging the Yankees' only victory of the playoffs in ALDS Game 3, relieving Roger Clemens.

At least the youngsters still will have Mariano Rivera around to close out games.

"You can never go into Spring Training with too many pitchers, especially too many quality guys," pitching coach Dave Eiland said.

Meanwhile, the New York lineup is basically intact from last year, with the team re-signing Alex Rodriguez to that mammoth deal after it appeared he was a goner. Jorge Posada also re-signed, so this team will score plenty of runs again. But it’s also aging, with Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi especially becoming injury-prone.

And the Yankees do need to decide who will play first base: They are considering Shelley Duncan, though he struggles against right-handers. Supersub Wilson Betemit and Damon will get some work there, and DH Giambi might be forced to dust off his glove. But he’s awful defensively.

The 968 runs the Yankees scored in 2007 were the 15th-highest total by a team in a season since 1900, the third-highest since 1950. And they think they can match that.

"You look at the guys we have, I mean, it's ridiculous," Giambi said. "You could arrange the lineup any way you want, and we're going to score runs."

But can they pitch?

Projected lineup
1B-LF-DH Johnny Damon/CF Melky Cabrera
SS Derek Jeter
RF Bobby Abreu
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Hideki Matsui
C Jorge Posada
DH-1B Jason Giambi
2B Robinson Cano
CF Melky Cabrera/1B Shelley Duncan

Projected rotation
Chien-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Mike Mussina
Phil Hughes
Ian Kennedy/Joba Chamberlain

Bet on baseball at WagerWeb.com

2008 MLB Odds - Red Sox 2008 preview


We begin our 2008 Major League Baseball team-by-team previews with the reigning World Series champion Boston Red Sox.

The biggest story for Boston is who is not in its camp: Johan Santana. After dueling with the Yankees for much of the offseason to acquire Santana from the Twins, the Red Sox pulled back and decided to stay with what they had (and were just as thrilled that the Yankees didn't get him, either).

And the Red Sox already do have an ace most teams would envy in Josh Beckett, but Curt Schilling's potential season-ending shoulder injury puts a few questions in the starting rotation.

After all, the new No. 2 is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was 2-4 with a 7.14 ERA in his final eight regular- season starts last year. Schilling's injury (he hopes to return in July) also places a greater burden on Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz at the bottom of the rotation. And that means the club needs to count on Tim Wakefield's health (although Boston did sign Bartolo Colon to a minor-league deal).

Still, the Red Sox are the team to beat in baseball and on WagerWeb.com because of Beckett, closer Jonathan Papelbon and their deep lineup.

Beckett had his best year in 2007 with a career-high 20 wins and a 3.27 ERA. He struck out 194 hitters in 200 2/3 innings and finished as the runner-up to Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia in the AL Cy Young voting. And Beckett was unhittable in the postseason.

In helping the Red Sox win their first American League East title since '95, Papelbon converted 37 of his 40 save opportunities while posting a 1.85 ERA. The flame-throwing right-hander had 12.96 strikeouts per nine innings while holding opponents to a meager .146 average.

Hitting-wise, Boston will get a full season of Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury hit .438 in the World Series and was a major contributor in helping the Red Sox to sweep the Colorado Rockies. In 33 games during the regular season, Ellsbury hit.353 with three home runs and 18 RBIs. He also had nine stolen bases.He replaces last year's starter for most of the season in Coco Crisp, who may be traded for pitching.

David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez showed they were still one of the majors' better power combinations - hen healthy, especially in the playoffs.

Last season, Ortiz only hit 35 home runs after hitting 54 in 2006. His RBIs also dropped (from 137 in 2006 to 117 last season), but his batting average jumped from .287 in 2006 to a career-high .332 in 2007.

Ramirez is worth watching, as he will be 36 in May and he only had 20 home runs last season. It was his lowest total since he hit 17 home runs in 1994. He missed a chunk of the late season with injury and could pout if he doesn't get a contract extension.

And the Sox wouldn't have won the World Series without unsung heroes like Mike Lowell (the Series MVP), Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. Lowell was re-signed in the offseason and is an important player in the clubhouse but it's unlikely he will match his 2007 numbers (.321, 21 HRs, 120 RBIs). Outfielder J.D. Drew (Drew .270, 11 HRs, 64 RBIs), meanwhile, should bounce back from a down year.

Repeating is never easy but the Red Sox open the spring as baseball's best team and have plenty of reinforcements in a deep farm system.

Projected Batting Order

Second base: Dustin Pedroia
First base: Kevin Youkilis
Designated hitter: David Ortiz
Left field: Manny Ramirez
Third base: Mike Lowell
Right field: J.D. Drew
Catcher: Jason Varitek
Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury
Shortstop: Julio Lugo

Projected Rotation
Starting pitcher (1): Josh Beckett
Starting pitcher (2): Daisuke Matsuzaka
Starting pitcher (3): Jon Lester
Starting pitcher (4): Tim Wakefield
Starting pitcher (5): Clay Buchholz

Bet on baseball at WagerWeb.com

NBA Odds - Pistons vs. Nuggets


A let-down game. Bettors know them well, and they are worth jumping on, similar to trap games.

Well, you almost have to expect the Detroit Pistons to have some sort of let-down game Monday night in Denver.

The Pistons are coming off one of the most impressive wins of the NBA season, 116-86 over Phoenix on Sunday. But playing back-to-back and in the altitude? That sounds like a win ripe for the taking for Denver, which is why the game is a pick'em on WagerWeb.com.

I'd feel better about being solidly behind Denver if the Nuggets weren't coming off two consecutive losses to Eastern Conference teams with losing records.

Allen Iverson scored 26 points and Carmelo Anthony had 25, but the Nuggets squandered a 23-point, second-quarter lead Saturday (their biggest blown lead of the season) en route to a 115-109 defeat at Milwaukee. The setback came one night after a 135-121 loss at Chicago, and dropped Denver into a tie with Golden State for the eighth and final playoff spot in the conference.

Actually, Denver has allowed at least 109 points in each of its last five games, and is 2-3 in that stretch.

But the Nuggets are a very good 22-6 at home and 12-1 against Eastern Conference teams at the Pepsi Center.

That's fine, but the Pistons have won four of their past six games in Denver and 10 of the past 12 overall meetings."They are a defensive, executing, consistent basketball team," Nuggets coach George Karl said of the Pistons. "They don't beat themselves. On most given games, they're an 'A' to 'A-minus' defensive team, and they have a lot of weapons that get hot and figure out who's going to be shooting. And now their bench is playing well. They're very, very powerful."

Detroit is 12-2 since losing a season-high three straight from Jan. 18-21.

"This was a big game for us," said Pistons guard Chauncey Billups, who had 14 points and 11 assists against the Suns. "You know how we are, man, when we play against other elite teams, we lock in. We lock in big-time. I thought everybody played great -- everybody."

Billups, a former Nugget, is averaging 23.0 points and 9.7 assists in the three games, increasing his season averages to 17.5 and a team-high 7.1, respectively.

Meanwhile, Denver center Marcus Camby, who leads the NBA with 4.0 blocked shots per game, has averaged 6.0 in his past five games, and power forward Kenyon Martin had 14 rebounds at Milwaukee, his most since 17 on Jan. 18, 2006, against Cleveland.

But Denver's defense has been lacking all season, as the Nuggets allow 104.9 points per game, better than only Indiana (105.0) and Golden State (108.1).

Still, I like Denver here.

ATS DetroitDenver
Record:41-15-0 (.732) 33-22-0 (.600)
As Favorite: 37-12-0 (.755) 26-11-0 (.703)
As Underdog: 4-3-0 (.571) 7-11-0 (.389)
At Home: 22-5-0 (.815) 22-6-0 (.786)
On Road: 19-10-0 (.655) 11-16-0 (.407)



Bet on the NBA at WagerWeb.com

March Madness Odds - Texas vs. Kansas State


The University of Texas makes its third straight appearance on ESPN's Big Monday tonight when the No. 7 Longhorns (23-4, 10-2 Big 12) play at No. 25 Kansas State (18-8 8-4).

The Wildcats are in third place in the Big 12, and Kansas dropped to second behind Texas after its 61-60 upset loss at Oklahoma State

Texas has a two-game edge over Kansas (thanks to its victory in Austin on Feb. 11). And a victory Monday would make it next to impossible for Kansas State to catch the Longhorns over the last few games of the regular season.

"That's a big deal," Texas sophomore guard Justin Mason said of winning the conference title. "It's like wanting to win the national championship. Any big-time school wants to win its conference. That's always the goal."

But to win, Texas will have to slow KSU monster freshman Michael Beasley, who is making a run at matching what Texas' Kevin Durant did last season: become player of the year as a freshman.

Beasley is averaging 26.1 points and a nation-leading 12.5 rebounds. Those numbers are better than Durant's from last year (25.8 ppg, 11.1 rpg), when Durant made history as the first freshman to sweep the six major national player of the year awards at Texas.

With 44 points and 13 rebounds in a 92-86 loss at Baylor on Saturday night, Beasley posted his 23rd double-double, breaking the NCAA freshman record of 22 set by Carmelo Anthony at Syracuse in 2003.

In the last 10 years, only one freshman has recorded a 40-point, 10-rebound game (North Carolina's Tyler Hansbrough during the 2005-06 season).

Beasley's 44 points broke the Big 12 single-game scoring record. His 28 points in the first half matched his own Big 12 record for a half previously held by Durant (26).Listed at 6-10, 235 pounds, Beasley is hitting 39.4 percent from 3-point range (28 of 71), best of any starter on the K-State team.

Yet despite those numbers, KSU has lost its last two and three of its last four. In the loss at Baylor, the Wildcats dropped to 12-1 when they score at least 80.

Kansas State coach Frank Martin on how his team will react after losing road games at Nebraska and Baylor last week: "We'll find out. Our last two road losses, I haven't been happy. I'd like to think the average person who follows this conference understands how tough it is to win on the road in this conference. We're a good basketball team. We've got to defend a little better."

Texas is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Longhorns have won their last seven games, and in the last two, they held Texas A&M (30.2 percent) and Oklahoma (26.4 percent) to their lowest field-goal percentages of the season.

Texas sophomore point guard D.J. Augustin is leading the way, averaging 19.1 points, 6.0 assists and 37 minutes per game.

Texas is 7-0 in February and closes out the month with the Kansas State game. The last time the Longhorns were undefeated in February came during the 1962-63 season when they went 8-0.

Texas has allowed 95 total points in the last two games, with opponents shooting 28.4 percent in that span. The Longhorns have held five of their last six foes under 40 percent from the field.

All three of Kansas State's recent losses have come on the road, but the Wildcats have won 11 in a row at home. They're 6-0 in Big 12 games at Manhattan, winning by an average of 21.3 points, including a pair of victories over top 10 teams.

Kansas State won 73-72 at Texas in the teams' only meeting last season.

Bet on NCAA basketball at WagerWeb.com
Saturday.