All the pundits can list the number of things the Giants must do well in Sunday's Super Bowl XLII to win, but in reality it's pretty simple: If New England QB Tom Brady has his usual stellar game, the Pats aren't going to lose.
The AFC champs are -12 on WagerWeb.com.
Brady led an offense that set an NFL record for the most points scored in a regular season (589), the largest point difference in a season (plus-315) and the most touchdowns (75).
He broke Peyton Manning's 4-year-old NFL mark for most touchdown passes in a single season, throwing 50 of them - to eight different players. In addition, Brady completed passes to at least 14 different players and set a Patriots record for most passing yards (4,806), highest completion percentage (68.9) and highest passer rating (117.2).
"I believe it is the best offense I have seen since I've been involved with the NFL as a player or analyst in any role, and that goes back to 1973," said ESPN's Ron Jaworski, also a former Eagles quarterback. "It has every dimension you would want in an offense. . .As I look at this entire body of offense, it's the best offense I've ever seen."
``Fifty touchdowns in a season is incomprehensible,' said Fox NFL analyst Troy Aikman, who quarterbacked the Dallas Cowboys to three Super Bowl titles. ``It's hard to throw that many touchdowns without putting the ball at risk and yet he's been able to minimize it.'In the Patriots' Super Bowl wins in 2002, 2004 and 2005, Brady threw just one interception and 12 touchdowns in 108 pass attempts (he was MVP of the 2002 and '04 games). New England's 15 turnovers this season matched the second-fewest in a 16-game NFL season.
And turnovers will be key: In the championship's 42-year history, teams have won 91 percent of the time when they had a turnover advantage. Of the 33 Super Bowl-winning teams, only Pittsburgh (2006, 1980) and Baltimore (1971) committed more turnovers than their opponents.
Brady was human in the Patriots' 21-12 win over San Diego in the AFC Championship on Jan 20, throwing three interceptions. And he was spotted wearing a protective plastic boot on a sore right ankle most of last week. But during practice this week he ran well and his ankle problem isn't listed on the injury report.
"I'm ready," said Brady, WagerWeb.com's -160 favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP. "This is the biggest game of all our lives. We're going to be remembering this game for as long as we live - win or lose."
In the Pats' 38-35 victory over the Giants in Week 17, Brady was 32-for-42 for 356 yards and two touchdowns.
More important, he was sacked only once by a team that led the league with 53 sacks.
"We got pressure, but we could have always gotten more," Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora said. "Even though he was completing passes while he was getting hit, you can never hit a quarterback enough times. I think all of that has a cumulative effect on a quarterback. Even if we hit him eight times, maybe next time we'll go for hitting him 20 times and see if that has an effect on him. He's very, very cool in the pocket. No matter what you do, you can't really rattle him that much. But we're never going to say pressure isn't the answer because it always is the answer."
The lowdown: The AFC champion has won four consecutive Super Bowls, six of the last seven and eight of the last 10. The Patriots under Brady are 3-0 in Super Bowls. A fourth title (joining Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana as the only QBs to do so) and an unbeaten season gets Brady in the argument as possibly the greatest signal caller in history. Hard to bet against him: Patriots 34, Giants 21.
Playoff Betting Trends
The Giants are 3-0 ATS.
The Giants are 3-0 ATS away.
The Giants are 3-0 ATS as the underdog.
The Giants are 3-0 ATS as an away underdog.
The Patriots are 0-2 ATS.
The Patriots are 0-2 ATS at home.
The Patriots are 0-2 ATS as the favorite.
The Patriots are 0-2 ATS as a home favorite.
More NFL Trends.
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