Tuesday, February 26, 2008

2008 MLB Odds - Red Sox 2008 preview


We begin our 2008 Major League Baseball team-by-team previews with the reigning World Series champion Boston Red Sox.

The biggest story for Boston is who is not in its camp: Johan Santana. After dueling with the Yankees for much of the offseason to acquire Santana from the Twins, the Red Sox pulled back and decided to stay with what they had (and were just as thrilled that the Yankees didn't get him, either).

And the Red Sox already do have an ace most teams would envy in Josh Beckett, but Curt Schilling's potential season-ending shoulder injury puts a few questions in the starting rotation.

After all, the new No. 2 is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who was 2-4 with a 7.14 ERA in his final eight regular- season starts last year. Schilling's injury (he hopes to return in July) also places a greater burden on Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz at the bottom of the rotation. And that means the club needs to count on Tim Wakefield's health (although Boston did sign Bartolo Colon to a minor-league deal).

Still, the Red Sox are the team to beat in baseball and on WagerWeb.com because of Beckett, closer Jonathan Papelbon and their deep lineup.

Beckett had his best year in 2007 with a career-high 20 wins and a 3.27 ERA. He struck out 194 hitters in 200 2/3 innings and finished as the runner-up to Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia in the AL Cy Young voting. And Beckett was unhittable in the postseason.

In helping the Red Sox win their first American League East title since '95, Papelbon converted 37 of his 40 save opportunities while posting a 1.85 ERA. The flame-throwing right-hander had 12.96 strikeouts per nine innings while holding opponents to a meager .146 average.

Hitting-wise, Boston will get a full season of Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury hit .438 in the World Series and was a major contributor in helping the Red Sox to sweep the Colorado Rockies. In 33 games during the regular season, Ellsbury hit.353 with three home runs and 18 RBIs. He also had nine stolen bases.He replaces last year's starter for most of the season in Coco Crisp, who may be traded for pitching.

David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez showed they were still one of the majors' better power combinations - hen healthy, especially in the playoffs.

Last season, Ortiz only hit 35 home runs after hitting 54 in 2006. His RBIs also dropped (from 137 in 2006 to 117 last season), but his batting average jumped from .287 in 2006 to a career-high .332 in 2007.

Ramirez is worth watching, as he will be 36 in May and he only had 20 home runs last season. It was his lowest total since he hit 17 home runs in 1994. He missed a chunk of the late season with injury and could pout if he doesn't get a contract extension.

And the Sox wouldn't have won the World Series without unsung heroes like Mike Lowell (the Series MVP), Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. Lowell was re-signed in the offseason and is an important player in the clubhouse but it's unlikely he will match his 2007 numbers (.321, 21 HRs, 120 RBIs). Outfielder J.D. Drew (Drew .270, 11 HRs, 64 RBIs), meanwhile, should bounce back from a down year.

Repeating is never easy but the Red Sox open the spring as baseball's best team and have plenty of reinforcements in a deep farm system.

Projected Batting Order

Second base: Dustin Pedroia
First base: Kevin Youkilis
Designated hitter: David Ortiz
Left field: Manny Ramirez
Third base: Mike Lowell
Right field: J.D. Drew
Catcher: Jason Varitek
Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury
Shortstop: Julio Lugo

Projected Rotation
Starting pitcher (1): Josh Beckett
Starting pitcher (2): Daisuke Matsuzaka
Starting pitcher (3): Jon Lester
Starting pitcher (4): Tim Wakefield
Starting pitcher (5): Clay Buchholz

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