Friday, February 8, 2008

NBA Odds - Shaq would alter West


Entering Wednesday, the Phoenix Suns had the best record in the Western Conference, a 2.5-game lead in the Pacific Division, and had won eight of their past 10 games and were on pace to reach 58 victories this season.

So, naturally, it’s time to blow things up.

Assuming he passes his physical, Shaquille O’ Neal will be traded to Phoenix from the Miami Heat for versatile forward Shawn Marion and seldom-used guard Marcus Banks.

The question is, why would Phoenix do this?

A few reasons:

*-The Suns are making a proactive strike against the Lakers and Mavericks. Los Angeles just improved its team greatly by adding Pau Gasol and will be a legitimate title contender once Andrew Bynum returns. The Mavericks, meanwhile, reportedly were close to trading for Shaq themselves. So, clearly, Phoenix is going for it this year before star guard Steve Nash really begins to show his age.

*-Shaq improves the team defensively inside and allows Phoenix to move Amare Stoudemire back to a more traditional power forward position, which should make him more effective. The Spurs have been the Suns’ nemesis in recent years, and now they have two big defenders to neutralize Tim Duncan.

However, there certainly are potential negatives to this deal for Phoenix.

*-Shaq is averaging only 14.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game and has had difficulty moving well and has been in foul trouble constantly because he's late on plays and not reacting to the speed of the game, which is greater in the West.*-In addition, Shaq just underwent a second MRI Tuesday on his inflamed left hip; he has missed the past two weeks and only played 32 games this season.

Heat coach Pat Riley recently indicated that O'Neal might not return until after the Feb. 17 All-Star Game.

"Even though he is in good shape, he is going to have to do some work," Riley said Tuesday. "He hasn't been able to move his lower extremities while it healed, so he is going to have to do some conditioning."

And Shaq missed much of the 2006-07 season with a knee injury and finished that year with career-lows in games (40), scoring (17.3 points), rebounds (7.4), minutes (28.4) and free-throw percentage (.422). So age and the physical toll are catching up to him.

However, a few reports out of South Florida have speculated that O’ Neal really had lost a lot of motivation with a bad Miami team (and his divorce) and that his relationship with Riley had soured. Thus being with a winning team will light the fire back in the big man.

The Suns repeatedly have denied they would change their fast-paced style, but clearly O’ Neal will change that a little, although you don’t need all five players out on a fast break. The move would also presumably allow the Suns to play both their natural speed game and in the halfcourt against the likes of the Spurs, Jazz, Nuggets and Rockets among others in the West.

Marion (15.8 points, 9.9 rebounds) was the Suns’ best wing defender, but he reportedly had infected the locker room with his constant complaints about his contract and being third fiddle to Nash and Stoudemire.

So while Phoenix seemed to be rolling, there were issues on the club below the surface. And the Suns are only 14-12 vs. the Western Conference (compared to 20-2 vs. the East).

Getting rid of an unhappy Marion and allowing Stoudemire the comfort of playing his natural position are certainly positives, and you have to credit the Suns for making their title push. Nash has been wearing down at the end of the past few seasons, and the window is closing on his MVP-caliber play.

"I think this is going to bring a lot of life back to Steve," a Suns source said. "He was very revved up after talking to Shaq."

But don’t expect the Mavericks to now sit by and do nothing. It’s your move, Dallas.

WagerWeb.com odds to win NBA title (West favorites):

Phoenix +425
Dallas +460
L.A. Lakers +800

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