Wednesday, February 27, 2008

March Madness Odds - Mississippi vs. Kentucky


It's not often we will preview a college basketball game between two unranked teams, but Wednesday night's SEC matchup between Mississippi (18-8, 4-8) and Kentucky (15-10, 9-3) is an important one for both teams' hopes to get an NCAA Tournament bid.

Kentucky is certainly in better position for an at-large bid than Ole Miss despite the worse overall record.

The Wildcats have won eight of their past nine games, mainly because they are good on defense and excel in close games.

UK has trailed in the second half of seven of its SEC wins; eight of its conference wins have come by fewer than 10 points. And the Wildcats rank second in SEC play in scoring defense, allowing an average of 66.8 points. Still, they're being outscored in conference play, a product of so many close games coupled with a 41-point loss at Vanderbilt.

"Our defense has been pretty solid for most of the conference schedule," UK coach Billy Gillispie said. "I think that we're gaining steam as we go, and I think that we have a sincere desire to get stops. It's not easy to do and you can't always do it, but I think our team has really taken to that mind-set. But we have to do better offensively to be a better team."

Ole Miss, meanwhile, started the season 13-0 and reached No. 15 in The Associated Press poll, but they've struggled in SEC play, allowing 76.8 points per game. That ranks 11th in the league.

Ole Miss is 0-6 in conference road games, being outscored by an average of 11 points. That includes Saturday's 69-49 loss at Louisiana State.

The Rebels are 1-13 in Coach Andy Kennedy's short tenure on the road.

"Statistics have proven that you have to be better on the road, because you can't rely on external motivation," Kennedy said. "It all has to come from within, and that's what we're lacking a little bit, honestly."He adds that his team may have lost its confidence.

The Rebels shot 26.8 percent in that loss at LSU. That marked the puniest point total of the season and matched the largest margin of defeat.

"I saw some doubt," Kennedy said. "As a coach, it's a very uneasy feeling to be standing there and look at the players and see a little bit of doubt. I had to rethink the way I've been coaching them. I've never been a big pat-on-the-back, feel-good (type of coach). And I've got to change some way."

The good news for Ole Miss is that it is 6-3 against teams currently ranked in the RPI top 100 and a 2-1 against top-25 teams, which may help the Rebels earn their first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2002. The Rebels' record of 18-8 is the best mark through 26 games since that 2002 team was 19-7.

UK, which is 6-0 at home in conference play, is the only SEC team with three players of the league's top 10 scorers -- Joe Crawford (seventh, 16.8 ppg), Patrick Patterson (eighth, 16.5) and Ramel Bradley (ninth, 15.9).

Crawford, Patterson and Bradley average 64 percent of UK's total offensive output. In Saturday's win against Arkansas, they scored 33 of the Cats' 36 second-half points.

Kentucky holds a whopping 94-11 lead in the series, which began in 1925, and has won eight in a row. And UK holds a 44-2 series lead in Lexington.

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