Tuesday, February 26, 2008

2008 MLB Odds - 2008 Yankees preview


We began our 2008 team-by-team previews with the Red Sox, so it’s only natural we follow Boston with its hated AL East rivals, the New York Yankees.

And much like in Boston, Johan Santana looms over the Big Apple. The decision not to trade for Santana was a calculated gamble. The Yankees chose not to give up two young starting pitchers (Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy) and center-fielder Melky Cabrera to get Santana, though none of that trio is firmly established at the major-league level. Now the Yankees (tied for second in the AL behind Boston at +500 to win the World Series at WagerWeb.com) need Hughes, Kennedy and fellow 2007 rookie Joba Chamberlain to be solid performers to make Joe Girardi’s first year as manager a success.

The Yanks also need Mike Mussina to return to 2006 form, Andy Pettitte to shake off the human growth hormone distractions and Chien-Ming Wang to remain one of the better starters in the majors.

Wang has quietly won 19 games in each of the past two seasons for the Yankees. In each season, he has posted an ERA below 3.75. He’ll win a bunch of games again this season, but the low strikeout totals are what keep him from being in the upper tier of starting pitchers. And he was blistered in last year’s playoffs.

Pettitte considered retirement before agreeing to return for one more year, and who knows how focused he will be with all this Mitchell Report/Roger Clemens stuff hanging over him. He did go 15-9 with a 4.05 ERA in 34 starts (36 appearances) last year, ranking ninth in the AL with 215 1/3 innings pitched.

"They're bringing me back not to be a fifth starter, but to try to help lead that staff," Pettitte said. "I knew I needed to make a decision, for the organization's sake and mine."Projected No. 3 starter Mike Mussina was 11-10 with a 5.15 ERA in 27 starts (28 games). Opponents batted .311 against the veteran, who lost his spot in the rotation after a series of poor outings in August but returned to log three consecutive victories in September duty.

Kennedy and Hughes are expected to start the year in the rotation, with Chamberlain (all of them under 25) retaining his set-up role early in the year to save his arm for starting around June.

Kennedy made just a few big-league starts last year and Hughes finished 5-3 with a 4.46 ERA in 13 starts before logging the Yankees' only victory of the playoffs in ALDS Game 3, relieving Roger Clemens.

At least the youngsters still will have Mariano Rivera around to close out games.

"You can never go into Spring Training with too many pitchers, especially too many quality guys," pitching coach Dave Eiland said.

Meanwhile, the New York lineup is basically intact from last year, with the team re-signing Alex Rodriguez to that mammoth deal after it appeared he was a goner. Jorge Posada also re-signed, so this team will score plenty of runs again. But it’s also aging, with Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Jason Giambi especially becoming injury-prone.

And the Yankees do need to decide who will play first base: They are considering Shelley Duncan, though he struggles against right-handers. Supersub Wilson Betemit and Damon will get some work there, and DH Giambi might be forced to dust off his glove. But he’s awful defensively.

The 968 runs the Yankees scored in 2007 were the 15th-highest total by a team in a season since 1900, the third-highest since 1950. And they think they can match that.

"You look at the guys we have, I mean, it's ridiculous," Giambi said. "You could arrange the lineup any way you want, and we're going to score runs."

But can they pitch?

Projected lineup
1B-LF-DH Johnny Damon/CF Melky Cabrera
SS Derek Jeter
RF Bobby Abreu
3B Alex Rodriguez
LF Hideki Matsui
C Jorge Posada
DH-1B Jason Giambi
2B Robinson Cano
CF Melky Cabrera/1B Shelley Duncan

Projected rotation
Chien-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Mike Mussina
Phil Hughes
Ian Kennedy/Joba Chamberlain

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