Friday, February 15, 2008

College Basketball Odds - Michigan St. vs. Purdue


Michigan State is playing tonight with the lead in the Big Ten at stake. Nothing surprising there, except the 10th-ranked Spartans aren't the ones atop the conference. That would be their opponent on Tuesday night: No. 19 Purdue, which is the slight favorite at WagerWeb.com.

This game begins a crucial stretch for the Spartans, who were preseason favorites in the Big Ten. Following the trip to West Lafayette, Tom Izzo's club travels to Bloomington on Saturday for another key game, with second-place Indiana.

Michigan State (20-3, 8-2), which sits in fourth in the conference, likely needs a sweep this week for a shot at its first regular season Big Ten crown since 2001.

But, first things first.

Purdue (19-5, 10-1) is the surprise team of the conference and looks to win a 10th straight game tonight for the first time in nearly 12 years. The last time the Boilermakers won 10 in a row was during the 1995-96 season, when they won 11 straight conference games on their way to their third consecutive Big Ten title.

Purdue began the winning streak after a 78-75 loss to Michigan State in East Lansing on Jan. 8. In that game, the Spartans shot a season-high 61.0 percent.

But Purdue is coming off one of the program's signature wins in recent years, defeating then-No. 8 Wisconsin 72-67 on the road Saturday for its first win over a top 10 team since knocking off then-No. 2 Duke 78-68 on Nov. 29, 2003; the Boilermakers became only the second Big Ten team ever to win at the Badgers' Kohl Center.Izzo said the Boilermakers may be the most physical team in the Big Ten. Purdue is not a great rebounding team, but leads the Big Ten in turnover margin with a solid defense.

"It's bump. It's move. It's grind," Izzo said of Purdue's approach.

Six of the Purdue's top seven scorers are freshmen or sophomores. Freshman Robbie Hummel, who had 17 points in a win over Penn State last Tuesday, scored a season-high 21 at Wisconsin and was named Big Ten player of the week.

Hummel is one of four freshmen who average at least 6.0 points for the Boilermakers. Freshman E'Twaun Moore, who leads the team with 11.2 points per game, was the player of the week immediately before Hummel.

"Everybody still talks about us as the Baby Boilers," said sophomore Chris Kramer, who had 12 points against the Badgers. "I think we use that as motivation, that we have something to prove still. We're still not getting any credit for the stuff we've accomplished."

Hummel scoffed when asked if Purdue was now the team to beat.

"No, I don't think so," said Hummel, who missed the first Michigan State game due to illness. "I don't think that we've been all over national magazines and stuff, and that's fine with us."

Purdue never has beaten top 10 teams in back-to-back games.

Michigan State has struggled on the road, losing at Iowa and Penn State - teams with losing records (MSU is 5-15 over the last three seasons on the road in the Big Ten). But the Spartans are coming off a 70-55 win over Northwestern on Saturday, their 18th straight home victory. Preseason Big Ten player of the year Drew Neitzel tied a season-high with 21 points.

Purdue has had great success shutting down Neitzel, who was held to five points on 2-for-11 shooting in a 62-38 loss last season and then scored nine on 3-for-8 shooting in last month's win.

Sophomore Raymar Morgan leads MSU with 15.8 points per game but has scored 10 points or fewer in five of his last eight games.

Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the Big Ten (38.9 per game) and is led by Goran Suton with an 8.4 average, while Purdue is second-to-last (32.8). The Spartans outrebounded the Boilermakers 34-26 in their first meeting.

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