Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Tennis Odds - Aussie Open - Federer vs. Blake


The match of the day Wednesday in Melbourne at the Australian Open is the men’s quarterfinal between 12th-seeded American James Blake and top-seeded Roger Federer.

Blake, 28, is the oldest player and only American left in the draw, and he is 0-7 in his career against Federer, winning a total of one set.

"Every time I go out on the court I like to think I have a chance and I'm going to win,” Blake said. "That's the same way I'll go into it this time."

Blake has never progressed past the quarterfinals of a major, having also reached the quarters at the U.S. Open in 2005 and 2006.

But "I feel like I'm better now than I was six months ago, six years ago, 10 years ago, whatever", Blake said.

He also took encouragement from Janko Tipsarevic's near upset of Federer in the third round (Tipsarevic fell 10-8 in the fifth set). Before that match, not since the French Open in 2000 had the great Swiss been pushed to five sets in the third round of a slam and he won 30 straight sets at Melbourne Park since dropping the first in the 2006 final against Baghdatis. The Swiss star had lost only six games in his first two matches this year."There's enough guys out there that can play on their best day and give him trouble," he said. "It hopefully can raise my spirits to know that I can do the same. I've always felt that.”

But Blake can’t seem to beat top 10 players at Grand Slams - in nine career attempts, his only win was against a young Rafael Nadal at the 2005 U.S. Open.

Federer rebounded from his human effort at Tipsarevic with a straight-set victory over Tomas Berdych (his 40th career victory at the Australian Open) as he tries for his 13th grand slam title and third straight Aussie crown. He also has won 40 straight matches against American players.

No wonder Federer is a big betting favorite on WagerWeb.com.

But he is not looking past Blake, whom he says has improved in the past few years.

"[Blake] plays incredibly aggressive tennis. Improved his serve a lot, his backhand. So have to be very careful,” Federer said. “I know his game sort of suits my game. I've had some great matches against him where I always play my very best. So we'll see how it goes this time around. Definitely got to play offensive myself, put him on the back foot as well.”

Here are their head-to-head results:
2007 Cincinnati, Final, Federer 6-1, 6-4
2006 Shanghai, Final, Federer 6-0, 6-3, 6-4
2006 U.S. Open, 3rd round, Federer 7-6 (9-7), 6-0, 6-7 (9-11), 6-4
2006 Miami, Quarterfinal, Federer 7-6 (7-2), 6-4
2006 Indian Wells, Final, Federer 7-5, 6-3, 6-0
2005 Cincinnati, 1st round, Federer 7-6 (7-3), 7-5
2003 U.S. Open, 3rd round, Federer 6-3, 7-6 (7-4), 6-3

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