Saturday, January 5, 2008

NFL Odds Playoffs - Redskins at Seahawks


Perhaps the most surprising team in the NFL playoffs is the Washington Redskins, who were 5-7 at one point and had to deal with losing star safety Sean Taylor, who was killed during a burglary in his Miami home.

Sometimes teams can come apart with such tragedy, but sometimes they can come together, and that, combined with inspired play by backup journeyman QB Todd Collins, has carried wild-card Washington to a four-game winning streak and into the playoffs to face Seattle as the hottest team in the NFC.

Collins came on in relief of injured starter Jason Campbell and led a 24-16 victory over the Bears as well as wins in the team's final three regular- eason contests. The 36-year-old Collins has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes and thrown for five touchdowns without an interception since taking over under center.

"Todd opens things up for everybody," says running Clinton Portis, who averaged 102 yards rushing the final three games. "You never know who's getting the ball now. So if you think you're on the route that's not coming to you, you'd better go full speed, because Todd will hit you right upside the head with the ball."

But Washington's defense also has been equally good, allowing only 13 points per game in the past four games and a league-best 71.8 rushing yards per game.

Last week against Dallas, the Redskins allowed only 1 yard rushing on 16 attempts.

However, the Seattle offense that Washington will be facing is no longer much of a running attack. In fact, former NFL MVP Shawn Alexander has scored just four touchdowns in 13 games and is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. He often splits time with Maurice Morris now.What Seattle likes to do is spread the field with three and four receivers, and then have quarterback Matt Hasselbeck spread the ball to Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, D.J. Hackett and Deion Branch.

Yes, the Seahawks have set consecutive season highs with 144 yards and 167 yards rushing in their last two games, but coach Mike Holmgren says he isn't running away from Hasselbeck's passing for the playoffs.

"We're not going to change," he said. "At this point, we're going to do the things that work for us. So we're not going to change that much. How far we go will be dependent on how well we do those (things)."

Hasselbeck ranked eighth in the NFL with a 91.4 rating, and threw 10 touchdowns in December to just three interceptions. He ranked second in the league with a 103.8 passer rating in the fourth quarter this season and is adept at playing in the rain and chill of Seattle, with 18 touchdowns and only seven interceptions at Qwest Field this season.

"Matt right now, I think, is one of the biggest reasons that team is in the playoffs," said Redskins cornerback Shawn Springs, who played with Hasselbeck in Seattle. "And I don't think anyone else that we would face has had to carry as much of the load as he has."

Hasselbeck may be without top receiver Deion Branch in this game. Branch, a former Super Bowl MVP with the Patriots, missed practice much of this week with a calf injury. Holmgren says Branch will be a game-time decision, but it's hard to believe Branch won't play.

Meanwhile, Hasselbeck wore a brace and ice on the wrist he fell on during Sunday's loss to Atlanta.

X-rays were negative, however, and he has fully participated in practice since midweek.

"He's fine," Holmgren said of Hasselbeck.

Seattle is 22-4 overall at Qwest Field since 2005 and has won each of its last three home playoff games.

Part of that run was a 20-10 victory over the Redskins in the 2005 NFC Divisional Playoffs.

WagerWeb.com line: Seattle -3 (39.5)

Prediction: Hard to bet against a streaking team playing on emotion, but also hard to bet against recent history. Seattle is a great home team, and I'll take Hasselbeck over Collins. Seahawks 21, Redskins 17.

Betting Trends

The Redskins are 4-9 ATS.
The Redskins are 2-5 ATS away.
The Redskins are 3-5 ATS as the underdog.
The Redskins are 1-5 ATS as an away underdog.
The Seahawks are 5-9 ATS.
The Seahawks are 4-3 ATS at home.
The Seahawks are 3-8 ATS as the favorite.
The Seahawks are 3-3 ATS as a home favorite.

More NFL Trends.

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