Wednesday, January 2, 2008

College Football Odds - Sugar Bowl


What: Sugar Bowl
Who: No. 10 Hawaii (12-0) vs. No. 4 Georgia (10-2)
Where: Louisiana Superdome, New Orleans
When: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com line: Georgia -7.5 (68)

This year's Sugar Bowl features the lone unbeaten team in the country in the WAC's Hawaii Warriors against the SEC's Georgia Bulldogs.

The Warriors are the third program outside of the BCS conferences to reach a BCS bowl, following in the footsteps of Utah and Boise State. Georgia, meanwhile, is playing as well as anyone, having won six games in a row.

Everyone knows about Hawaii's wide-open offense behind Heisman trophy finalist Colt Brennan. His play in this game could go a long way in determining in which round of the NFL draft he is taken.

Although he missed substantial time with injury and wasn't always around in blowout wins, Brennan still managed to produce the second-best passing offense in the nation this year with 450 ypg and led the top-scoring offense with 46.2 ppg. The team never failed to score less than four touchdowns and hit for at least 42 points through the first eight games of the season. Brennan finished with 4,174 yards passing and 38 touchdowns, against only 14 interceptions. He even had eight rushing touchdowns, often calling his own number near the goal line. The Warriors don't much bother running the ball otherwise - they were 113th in the nation in rushing. WR Ryan Grice-Mullen (1,335 yards, 12 TDs) is the leading receiver.

The Warriors will face a Georgia defense ranked 19th overall in the country and 24th in pass defense (205.2 yards per game).

Hawaii's defense, meanwhile, is of course overshadowed by the offense, but it has been quite solid and will have its hands full against Georgia.

The Warriors are ranked 33rd in the nation in total defense, allowing 348.9 yards, the best in June Jones' nine seasons at Hawaii and a major improvement over previous years. Last year's 11-3 team, which featured two defensive lineman that were drafted in the NFL, was ranked 93rd. The Warriors were 102nd in 2005 and 116th in 2004.
Hawaii also ranks ninth in the nation in sacks (3.3 a game) and is sixth in tackles for loss (8.5). Teams have converted just 28.7 percent of third downs against Hawaii, ranking the Warriors fourth best in the nation. Hawaii is also ranked 16th in the nation in turnovers gained.

"We haven't gotten the respect we deserve," said linebacker Solomon Elimimian, who leads the team with 132 tackles. "It's a great opportunity to prove to everyone how good the defense really is."

Georgia's offense took off this season when tailback Knowshon Moreno took over as the feature back. Ranked second in the SEC behind only Darren McFadden, the freshman averaged just over 106 ypg on the ground, leading to 12 touchdowns.

QB Matthew Stafford and the passing attack was inconsistent early but has gotten better; it averages 200.3 ypg to rank eighth in the SEC and 84th in the country overall. Stafford did throw for 2,248 yards and 18 TDs.

Georgia is 23-16-3 all time in bowls, and last season the Bulldogs won for the fourth time in the last five postseason appearances with a 31-24 victory over Virginia Tech in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Hawaii has won three straight postseason appearances and is 5-2 overall in bowl games all-time. Last year the team posted a 41-24 triumph over Arizona State.

Prediction: Georgia is just playing too well right now. But this is must-see TV. Georgia 45, Hawaii 42.

Hawaii vs. Georgia Betting Trends:
Hawaii is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Hawaii is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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