NFL Odds Playoffs - Jaguars at Steelers

NFL Odds Playoffs - Jaguars at SteelersThey always say it's harder in the NFL to beat a team a second time in a season. Well, how about the second time in less than a month?

That's what the Jacksonville Jaguars will be trying to accomplish Saturday night in Pittsburgh during their AFC Divisional Round playoff game. On Dec. 16, the Jags went to the Steel City and ground out a 29-22 victory behind 147 yards rushing from Fred Taylor.

The final score was not indicative of the superiority of the Jaguars, who handed the Steelers their only home loss of the season. Jacksonville had a 25-13 edge in first downs and carried a 22-7 lead into the final quarter before Ben Roethlisberger rallied Pittsburgh with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes to forge a 22-22 tie.

Undaunted, the Jaguars marched 73 yards on eight plays for the winning touchdown, a 12-yard run by Taylor, who has torn up the Steelers' defense for 381 yards in his last two games and is averaging 121 yards in his past six against Pittsburgh.

"A lot of guys didn't believe that we could come up here, on the road, and play a team like Pittsburgh and win the game," Taylor said. "We just played the game."

"I don't see Fred Taylor doing that to our defense twice in a row," Steelers receiver Hines Ward said.

The Jaguars' 29 points that game accounted for 31 percent of the total points Pittsburgh allowed at Heinz Field. And should the Jags win again Saturday, they would be the first visiting team in NFL history to win at Pittsburgh twice in one season.

And you can bet Jacksonville will use that same conservative, run-in-down-your-throat mentality that worked the first time to the tune of 225 yards rushing. The Jaguars finished the regular season with the AFC's top rushing attack at 149.4 yards per game and 4.6 per carry."We didn't like our performance the last time we played Jacksonville, and that's not taking anything away from them," first-year Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said. "We know what type of team they are, and we have work to do."

And Jacksonville has a couple of other things on its side: The Jags won six of seven before losing a meaningless regular-season finale against Houston (Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 3-4 down the stretch).

And the Steelers will be without some key offensive players in this rematch: starting running Willie Parker broke his leg in Week 16 and is done for the year, and Pittsburgh's top two left tackles, Marvel Smith (back) and Max Starks (knee) won't play, bad news for an O-Line that allowed 47 sacks.

"A lot of things are of concern. What lies ahead is an enormous playoff game versus a great football team at our place," Tomlin said. "If there is any hesitation, they better quickly get over it because the ball is going to be kicked off here shortly.

"Parker, the NFL's leading rusher when he was injured, will be replaced by Najeh Davenport (499 rushing yards, 18 receptions, 7 TDs), who is more of a power back. Davenport only gained 27 yards on 12 carries in his first start of the year against Baltimore last Sunday.

So that could mean the Steelers may try to win the game on the arm of Pro Bowler Ben Roethlisberger, who threw for 3,154 yards, 32 TD passes and just 11 picks.

The good news for Big Ben: The Jaguars did gave up a whopping 49 pass plays of more than 20 yards, so deep threat Santonio Holmes could see a lot of throws his way. But Pittsburgh went just 3-4 when Roethlisberger attempted at least 30 passes this season.

Jacksonville QB David Garrard does just enough to beat you. He doesn't make mistakes (18 TDs and just three INTs in 325 pass attempts) and generally hands or dumps off to Taylor, who rushed for 1,202 yards on the ground on 5.4 yards per carry, and Maurice Jones-Drew, who rushed for 768 yards (plus nine TDs) and caught 40 passes for 407 yards.

The Steelers enter the postseason having lost three of four as their once vaunted (and somehow top- anked) defense has allowed averages of 28.5 points and 373.0 total yards - more than 15 points and 140 yards above their averages through 12 games.

WagerWeb.com line: Jaguars -2.5 (39.5)

Prediction: This is just the second playoff game for Jacksonville since the 1999 AFC title game, but this team is humming along, almost as a Pittsburgh south.

In fact, this may be the best warm-weather team ever suited to play in the cold. Look for Taylor and Jones-Drew to total at least 30 carries and for the Jags to make history in the Steel City, 24-21.

Betting TrendsThe Jaguars are 8-7 ATS.
The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS away.
The Jaguars are 3-2 ATS as the underdog.
The Jaguars are 2-2 ATS as an away underdog.
The Steelers are 6-9 ATS.
The Steelers are 5-3 ATS at home.
The Steelers are 6-4 ATS as the favorite.
The Steelers are 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.

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