Wednesday, January 2, 2008

College Football Odds - Rose Bowl


What: Rose Bowl
Who: No. 13 Illinois (9-3) vs. No. 6 Southern Cal (10-2)
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.
When: Tuesday, 4:30 p.m.
WagerWeb.com line: USC -13.5 (50)

The granddaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl, kept its traditional Big Ten/Pac-10 matchup this year by taking the Big Ten's surprising Illinois Fighting Illini against Pac-10 champ Southern California.

After going 4-19 combined the past two seasons, coach Ron Zook has led the Illini to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1983 and fifth time overall. He was named national coach of the year as Illinois had a nation-high seven-game improvement this season.

'I've gotten a bunch [of calls and e-mails]. I don't know numbers,' Zook said of hearing from his doubters. 'People apologizing for things they've said, things they've written.

They're happy to see us have success. They didn't have to do that, so I appreciate that.'

Yet oddsmakers obviously don't give the Illini much of a shot, with Illinois the biggest underdog among all the bowl teams. Probably because Southern Cal is peaking, having won its last four games of the season, all against bowl-bound teams, and none of the opponents managed more than two offensive touchdowns.

Illinois will bring the nation's fifth-ranked rushing attack, averaging 266.2 yards per game on 5.7 yards per carry. Junior RB Rashard Mendenhall averages 6.2 yards per carry, while racking up 1,526 yards and 16 TDs. His 127.2 yards per game ranked eighth nationally.

Sophomore QB Juice Williams threw for just 1,498 yards and 13 TDs this season, but rushed for 774 yards and seven TDs. When he does throw, it's usually to freshman WR Arrelious Benn (team- high 49 receptions, for 596 yards and one TD).

USC's defense, led by linebacker Keith Rivers, is one of the best in the country, limiting opponents to just 15.9 ppg (third nationally) and just 79.2 yards per game rushing (fourth nationally), on 2.4 yards per carry. The pass defense was stout as well, with USC allowing just 179.7 yards per game and finishing second nationally in total defense at 258.8 ypg.

USC's offense is well-balanced. On the ground, senior Chauncey Washington ran for 916 yards and nine TDs, and freshman Joe McKnight lived up to his billing as a big-play threat in the final two regular-season games. But Illinois' run defense ranked third in the Big Ten.

Quarterback John David Booty missed some time due to injury this year and completed over 62 percent of his tosses for 2,106 yards with 20 TDs. (College football injury report)

USC, making its third Rose Bowl appearance in the past four years and 32nd appearance overall, has won 10 of the 12 all-time meetings with Illinois, with the Illini's two wins coming in 1935 and in 1989. The last meeting which took place in 1996, resulted in a 55-3 rout for the Trojans.

Illinois vs Southern Cal betting trends:

Illinois is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games

Illinois is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

Southern Cal is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Southern Cal is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


More College Football betting trends

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Joe Mcknight is one of the players whom I considered is the main reason for the defeat of Fighting Illini. He shows a lot of intensity during the game that led to their victory.

From a Joe Mcknight website.