Monday, January 7, 2008

College Football Odds - BCS Title Game Part 2


Ohio State's offense is nowhere near as versatile as LSU's is, but then again, the Tigers' defense recently hasn't been as good as the Buckeyes' version.

Ohio State - +3.5 on WagerWeb.com for Monday's game - depends largely upon running back Chris "Beanie" Wells. After running for more than 500 yards and seven touchdowns as a freshman, Wells blew up this year as the featured back, with his 1,463 rushing yards second-most in the Big Ten and the seventh-most in any season by an Ohio State player. He combines power, speed and durability.

"He's a big guy," LSU All-America defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey said. "He runs the ball hard and has some good moves. I think he's faster than people give him credit for."

And Wells is peaking. In Ohio State's last game, a 14-3 win over rival Michigan on Nov. 17, Wells ran 39 times for 222 yards and two touchdowns. His 62-yard open.

He closed the regular season by rushing for 221 yards against Michigan State, 133 against Penn State, 169 gainst Wisconsin, 76 against Illinois and 222 against Michigan.

"He's a big, powerful back," LSU defensive coordinator Bo Pelini said. "They feel really confident in their running game, and that's obviously going to be a key in the ball game."

LSU has a stout defense, ranking 13th nationally in run defense, allowing only 103.1 yards per game. The Tigers allowed only one 100-yard runner in 13 games this season -- Heisman Trophy runner-up Darren McFadden of Arkansas had 206 yards and three touchdowns in the Razorbacks' stunning 50-48 upset in three overtimes of the then-No. 1 Tigers.But that defense looked vulnerable in two of their past three games, when Dorsey was hobbled by a severely sprained right knee. Ole Miss gained 466 yards of offense in LSU's 41-24 win on Nov. 17.

Arkansas had 513 yards against the Tigers, including 385 rushing yards. LSU's defense played better in its 21-14 victory over Tennessee in the Dec. 1 SEC Championship Game, holding the Volunteers to only 94 rushing yards and 343 yards overall.

But the Tigers shut down several 1,000-yard running backs during the season, including Tulane's Matt Forte (73 yards), Ole Miss' BenJarvus Green-Ellis (53 yards) and Mississippi State's Anthony Dixon (29 yards).

"LSU is a great football team and they have a great defense," Wells said. "I mean, that's just something that we've been preparing for since we found out we were going to be playing LSU."

With LSU likely gearing up to stop Wells, a lot will be on the shoulders of Buckeyes QB Todd Boeckman. In his first season replacing Heisman winner Troy Smith, Boeckman completed 175 of 272 passes for 2,164 yards, 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Boeckman's favorite target is Brian Robiskie, who had 50 catches for 885 yards and 10 touchdowns.

But Boeckman was 20 of 40 with four interceptions and no touchdown passes in his past two games, and Robiskie caught just six passes for 52 yards in those last two games. LSU ranks second in the nation in pass-efficiency defense, led by SS Craig Steltz (six interceptions) and CBs Chevis Jackson (four interceptions) and Jonathan Zenon (three interceptions). The Tigers allowed only 180.8 yards through the air (10th nationally).

A lot of that pass defense has to do with a pass rush that recorded 32 sacks, led by Dorsey. The future top pick in the NFL draft finished third on the team in tackles (64) and second in both tackles for loss (11.5) and sacks (6.0). His presence in the middle allows senior DE Kirston Pittman to get free off the edge.

Pittman racked up 61 tackles this year and led the team in TFLs (12.5) and sacks (7.0). Senior LB Ali Highsmith (93 tackles, 7.5 TFLs) rounds out a very good front seven.

Ohio State's offensive line is a strength and allowed only 14 sacks on the season.

Bet on the BCS national championship at WagerWeb.com

More College Football Trends.

No comments: