Wednesday, January 2, 2008

College Football Odds - Independence Bowl


What: Independence Bowl
Who: Alabama (6-6) vs. Colorado (6-6)
Where: Independence Stadium, Shreveport, La.
When: Sunday, 8 p.m.
WagerWeb.com line: Alabama -3.5 (52)

The SEC's Alabama Crimson Tide, on a four-game losing streak, face the Big 12's Colorado Buffaloes in Sunday's only bowl game; it's the second straight Independence Bowl for the Tide, as they lost 34-31 to
Oklahoma State last year.

Alabama head coach Nick Saban, who formerly led LSU, makes his return to Louisiana, and his team is sliding, including yet another loss to archrival Auburn and a shocking upset by Louisiana-Monroe. All of the Tide's four consecutive losses have been by seven points or fewer, and Alabama is trying to avoid its first back-to-back losing seasons in 45 years.

"The most disappointing thing about this season is we didn't finish," Saban said following the 17-10 loss at Auburn in the regular-season finale on Nov. 24. "I failed the players in not getting them to be able to finish. ... The last four games, we didn't finish the way we wanted to finish."

Colorado, under coach Dan Hawkins, has been up-and-down as well, with the Buffs' season highlight an upset of Oklahoma. The Buffaloes look to avoid back-to-back losing seasons for the first time in 22 years.

Both teams struggle somewhat offensively.

The Tide's offense played well through the first nine games, averaging 31.8 points and 395.9 yards whilex committing only 11 turnovers. But in its last three games, Alabama scored just 12.0 points, averaged 302.7 yards and turned the ball over seven times. That averages out to 26.8 ppg and 372.6 ypg on the season.

QB John Parker Wilson has been central in that inconsistency. He has completed 54.9 percent of his passes for 2,590 yards and 15 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. But his quarterback rating of 111.9 was 11th out of the 12 full-time starters in the SEC, and he struggled down the stretch, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions in the last three losses.However, Alabama expects to have its top three running backs healthy for this game in speedy Terry Grant and power runners Roy Upchurch and Glen Coffee. Alabama has had moments of success running the ball. Grant, who led the team with 891 yards rushing, has three 100-yard games and was named the Southeastern Conference's freshman of the week three times. Coffee gained 121 yards on 30 carries against Houston and was his team's leading rusher against Georgia. Upchurch gained 41 yards on eight carries against Auburn.

But at no time since the Ole Miss game on Oct. 13 have all three been able to play in the same game.

QB Cody Hawkins has taken almost every snap for Colorado this season, and he finished with 424 pass attempts in 12 games, an average of over 35 attempts per contest. Hawkins has completed a modest 56.4 percent of his throws for 2,693 yards with 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Like Wilson, he had an up-and-down season, with a rating of 117.4 -- 10th among Big 12 quarterbacks.

The Buffaloes' Hugh Charles was the Big 12's sixth-leading rusher, running for 1,022 yards and eight touchdowns.

On offense, Colorado struggled in its losses, averaging just 15.3 points. In their wins, the Buffaloes scored 39.8.

Defensively, opponents are posting 21.8 ppg and 341.2 total ypg against Alabama, as the team's defense has been solid in most games this year. In fact, only twice did the Tide surrender more than 26 points in a game, and those two came against LSU and Arkansas.

Colorado, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom half nationally in total defense, pass defense, rush defense and scoring defense. The Buffaloes are allowing 389.4 total ypg, and they have been a little better against the run than the pass.

This is the record 55th bowl game for the Tide, who are 1-1 against Colorado: The Buffaloes won the 1969 Liberty Bowl 47-33, while the Tide won the 1991 Blockbuster Bowl 30-25.

Prediction: Alabama seems slightly less inconsistent and better on defense. Tide 21, Buffs 17.

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