Sunday, January 20, 2008

NFL Odds - AFC Championship Game - Chargers at Patriots


Expect the weather to play a big role in Sunday's NFC Championship in Green Bay, with the host Packers 7.5-point betting favorites (over/under: 41) at WagerWeb.com. The Lambeau Field tundra will indeed be frozen, as temperatures are expected to be around zero with a wind chill approaching minus-20.

To prepare for that, Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy put several footballs in a freezer to let players handle them to get the effect of what it's going to be like Sunday.

"Well, the idea really came from what I've done in the past with rain games, putting the football in a bucket of water and just use the same theory as far as the cold affecting the football," McCarthy said. "We froze the balls, really didn't tell the players about it and just rolled them in there on Wednesday and did it throughout the week. Really I was just trying to get them to focus more on catching the football. We had a couple of quarterback center exchange in the shotgun problems there on Wednesday, but I thought they
handled it very well."

So while Brett Favre gets all the headlines for Green Bay, it's likely running back Ryan Grant will be key on Sunday.

Last week, Grant, a former Giant, carried 27 times for 201 yards, a franchise postseason rushing record.


Green Bay rushed for 235 yards during that 42-20 victory over Seattle in the NFC divisional round; the Packers have rushed for 577 yards in their past three games, matching their total through the first eight games of the season.

New York dealt Grant to the Packers for a sixth-round draft pick shortly before the season opener after he spent two years with the Giants on the practice squad."Ryan performed and played very well during the preseason," New York coach Tom Coughlin said. "We had a position, as anybody who scouts or knows football can relate to, that had five or six NFL football players and that was one of them, that was the position for us."

Since Week 8 when he took over as Green Bay's starter, Grant has rushed for 929 yards, second only to San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson's 947 during that span.

"I am upset Ryan Grant is not with us," Giants DE Michael Strahan said. "He is a bull. He runs like a bull. We have our work cut out for us. We gave up too many yards (against Dallas) rushing. He is probably licking his chops with the opportunity to play against his former team. That's one of those guys you look at and you think, we let him go and we let one get away."

Interestingly, Grant and New York's duo of running backs, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, did not have a single carry in the teams' Week 2 meeting in the Meadowlands, a 35-13 Green Bay victory.

On the injury front, Green Bay is very healthy, while Giants cornerback Sam Madison missed practice on Friday and is questionable. Madison hasn't played since the regular season finale vs. the Patriots due to a strained abdominal muscle. New York cornerback Kevin Dockery has been ruled out because of a hip flexor, and rookie cornerback Aaron Ross practiced on a limited basis on Friday and is questionable due to a shoulder injury.

Prediction: The Packers are 13-2 all-time in playoff games at Lambeau Field, while New York looks to set a NFL record by winning 10 road games in one season, breaking the record it shares with the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers. Don't see that happening, although I like the G-Men to cover. Green Bay 21, N.Y. Giants 17.

Betting Trends

The Giants are 2-0 ATS.
The Giants are 2-0 ATS away.
The Giants are 2-0 ATS as the underdog.
The Giants are 2-0 ATS as an away underdog.
The Packers are 1-0 ATS.
The Packers are 1-0 ATS at home.
The Packers are 1-0 ATS as the favorite.
The Packers are 1-0 ATS as a home favorite.

More NFL Trends

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