The Patriots are good for business. With Super Bowl XLII likely to draw record ratings with New England going for perfection against the Giants, sports books also could see unprecedented numbers.
The Las Vegas sports books' record handle of $94.5 million came in 2006, when the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XL, but many expect this Sunday’s game to surpass $100 million wagered there on the game.
Other than the New England factor, there is the big-city New York factor and the fact that Phoenix is close to Vegas, giving fans even more reason to bet.
Chuck Esposito, assistant vice president of race and sports book operations at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas, said a number of factors could take this year's Big Game over the $100 million mark.
"First, you have the popular Pats with a chance to make history by going 19-0," Esposito said. "We also have the whole New York versus Boston sports rivalry, which became popular in baseball but now has carried over to football."
And we aren’t even talking about the amount of take offshore online books such as WagerWeb.com will take in.
Generally, 80 percent of the action typically takes place in the two days before the game, but Giants fans already have brought the line down to around 12 from a start of around 14. In general, sports books hope the line eventually will rise back to 13 or beyond, because history has shown that casual bettors – who typically bet in the final few days before the game - overwhelmingly favor the favorite."I think there were some professional handicappers who saw [the line] as high as it was going to go and took a stand at 14 and knocked it down to 12," said Tony Sinisi, odds director at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "I would not be surprised to see it end up at around 13. I think your casual bettors are going to be more New England bettors."
The Patriots have been a particularly frustrating team for Las Vegas this season, with the books losing on as many as 14 of the 18 games they have played. After they failed to cover against the Eagles, people began wagering against the Patriots, who proceeded to go 2-7 against the spread in their final nine games.
The Pats, incidentally, were the last Super Bowl team to come in as a double-digit underdog, 14 points to St. Louis in 2002, before the Super Bowl XXXVI upset that launched the New England dynasty. And the previous time before that, in 1998, defending champion Green Bay was a 12-point favorite before losing to John Elway's Denver Broncos 31-24.
If the line continues to drop, to, say, 11 1/2 or 11, it could create a "middle" opportunity for some bettors. That is, someone who had the Giants at 13 ½ could then take the Patriots at 11, hope the Patriots win by 12 or 13 and cash both tickets. Such a scenario is bad for the sports books because they have to pay out on both sides.
The most famous example, sometimes called "Black Sunday," took place in 1979 when the Steelers played the Cowboys in Super Bowl XIII. The Steelers were favored, with the line fluctuating between 3 1/2 and 4 1/2 in most places before finally settling at 4. The Steelers won 35-31, and Vegas was hit hard.
Robert Walker, sports book director for MGM Mirage, expects more Patriots support to show up in the last couple of days, moving the line back to 12 1/2 or 13 and leaving the books covered.
"The money will come in on the Patriots," he said. "The people are waiting to see how low it will go and then they'll jump in on them."
Bet on Super Bowl XLII at WagerWeb.com
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