Sunday, January 6, 2008

NFL Odds Playoffs - Titans at Chargers


Wild-card weekend in the NFL concludes Sunday late afternoon when Tennessee visits San Diego in a rematch of a Week 14 23-17 overtime victory by San Diego.

And the news heading into this game mostly centers on the Titans, who had to beat the Colts last week just to make the postseason but lost starting QB Vince Young during the game to injury.

Young tweaked his sore right quadriceps and practiced most of Friday. But coach Jeff Fisher says it will be a game-time decision whether Young or Kerry Collins starts.

"He's better, like I anticipated," Fisher said Friday of Young. "Took his normal reps. Didn't get to full speed, but we're hoping he will continue to improve.

He's a quick healer. So we can overcome some different things rather quickly. We're optimistic at this point."

Fisher said he won't determine who will quarterback the Titans until after he sees how freely Young can move during warm-ups. It would be Young's postseason debut.

"We're going to take him out and see how he is in the pregame, make sure he can run around and get close to full speed. Then we'll make a decision," Fisher said.

Young struggled big time in the first meeting, getting intercepted twice and limited to 2 yards rushing on two carries.

Two of Young's likely receiving targets won't play for Tennessee. Tight end Bo Scaife, one of Young's favorite short-range targets, suffered a lacerated liver in last weekend's win over the Colts and will miss the season, and No. 1 receiver Roydell Williams broke his right ankle in practice and is done.However, starting center Kevin Mawae (calf injury) hopes to return from a two-game absence.Expect the Titans to ride LenDale White no matter whom their QB is. Tennessee was 5-2 when White had at least 23 carries, and one of the losses was to that game to the Chargers, a game Tennessee dominated until the fourth quarter and in which White had 113 yards on 30 chances.

White, who missed the past two days of practice because of the death of his grandmother, didn't practice Friday because of a sore knee. However, the second-year back out of USC, who gained 1,110 yards for the Titans this season, is expected to start.

Tennessee's offense will be facing a hot San Diego defense that has held four of the past six opponents to fewer than 300 total yards and has 22 sacks. The Chargers led the NFL with 30 interceptions and finished fifth in scoring defense, allowing 17.8 points per game.

The Chargers bring a six-game win streak into the playoffs and have won 10 of 12 following a 1-3 start.

And winning in the playoffs is why this team fired coach Marty Schottenheimer after last year's flame out and brought in Norv Turner.

Turner's offense is starting to click behind reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. LT won his second consecutive rushing title with 1,474 yards and, excluding the season finale against Oakland in which he barely played, Tomlinson had a closing four-game stretch when he averaged 136.5 yards per game and 6.5 yards per carry. That included 146 yards on 26 attempts against Tennessee.

As LT has improved, so has QB Philip Rivers, who has had a rating above 100 for three straight weeks and hasn't thrown an interception since Tennessee picked him off twice.

San Diego's last postseason win was following the 1994 season, when it shocked Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship Game. Two weeks later, the Chargers were overwhelmed by the San Francisco 49ers in their only Super Bowl. San Diego has lost three straight playoff games at home since, starting with a 1995 wild-card game against Indianapolis.

WagerWeb.com line: Chargers -10 (39)

Prediction: The Titans franchise is 2-11 out west but 53-39 everywhere else on the road since Fisher became head coach in 1995. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 15-2 at home since 2006 in the regular season and have won six in a row at home. That's enough for me. I think Tennessee puts up a fight and covers but that the Chargers finally taste playoff victory, 23-17.

Betting Trends

The Titans are 11-4 ATS.
The Titans are 6-2 ATS away.
The Titans are 10-3 ATS as the underdog.
The Titans are 6-2 ATS as an away underdog.
The Chargers are 9-6 ATS.
The Chargers are 5-2 ATS at home.
The Chargers are 8-5 ATS as the favorite.
The Chargers are 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.

More NFL Trends.

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