One thing you can take to the bank in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round game between the Colts and Chargers in Indianapolis: Peyton Manning will not throw six interceptions again.
In Week 10, the Chargers beat the Colts in San Diego, 23-21, thanks mainly to a career-high six picks by Manning and an unfathomable missed 29-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri in the final minute. If the Chargers are counting on either of those happening again, their season will be over by about 4 p.m. on Sunday; This time around Indy is a 9.5-point favorite (over/under: 45.5) at WagerWeb.com.
The good news for San Diego fans is the Chargers have gone 11-2 since starting 1-3 and also won in Indianapolis in 2005 to deal the Colts their first loss of the season in their 14th game.
"I think they've definitely had our number the last couple of times we played them, but I don't think that will be the case Sunday," Indianapolis middle linebacker Gary Brackett said.
Moreover, in that Week 10 game this season, the Colts were missing several starters due to injury, including receivers Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez, tight end Dallas Clark, left tackle Tony Ugoh and linebackers Freddy Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler.
Indianapolis also lost three-time Pro Bowl defensive end Dwight Freeney and right tackle Ryan Diem during the game because of injuries.
Freeney is done for the season, but Indy expects to get back Harrison this week.
expects his future Hall of Famer to start after sitting out the last 10 games, and 11 of his last 12, with a left knee injury.
"I wouldn't say definite, but all indications seem like he's going to be ready to go," Dungy said Friday. "He's done fine [in practice this week]. Run all his [pass] routes. And actually taken more [repetitions] than we had probably had scheduled for him. So that's a good sign."Harrison may be on a play count against the Chargers since he has missed so much of the season. Stamina may be an issue later in the game, but the Colts are prepared for that.
"It's hard [having Harrison on a play count]. We try to do it. It just doesn't always hold up. So we'll see," the Colts coach said.
The Chargers are the team with a big injury concern this time around. Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates missed practice again on Friday and is listed as doubtful. The Chargers' leading receiver with 75 receptions and nine touchdown catches this season, Gates suffered a dislocated left big toe in last Sunday's 17-6 wild card victory over the Tennessee Titans.
Gates reportedly is a game-time decision and is holding out hope of playing. He will test the foot on the field Sunday prior to kickoff.
"I'm trying to do everything I can," Gates said.
"Right now, it's still a game-time decision. It's pretty sore. It felt good Tuesday, but it doesn't feel as good today. It's a tricky situation, really it is.
As far as the risk and reward, I'm trying to measure that."
Most reports say Gates won't be playing and in fact may need surgery on the toe.
That's not good news for the league's 26th-ranked passing offense. That means an even bigger reliance on receivers Chris Chambers, Vincent Jackson and running back LaDainian Tomlinson. Those three were the targets of 16 of QB Philip Rivers' final 18 pass attempts last week against Tennessee.
Indianapolis ended the regular season ranked second in the league in pass defense (172.8 yards allowed per game; the Colts allowed 177 in the last meeting with the Chargers), second in takeaways (37) and first in scoring defense (16.4 points allowed), so the Chargers will need a huge game from Tomlinson.
Last year's NFL MVP, Tomlinson led the league with 1,474 yards and 15 TDs on the ground, while finishing second on San Diego with 60 receptions for 475 yards.
One key to the ground game is San Diego fullback Lorenzo Neal, who clears many of Tomlinson's running lanes. Neal hasn't played since breaking his lower left leg in an overtime win at Tennessee on Dec. 9, but coach Norv Turner said he will practice this week and should be able to play Sunday.
Indy's run defense is middle of the pack, ranking 15th in the NFL in run defense (106.9 yards allowed per game). But the Colts they hardly give up any big plays - they ranked second in the league with just four runs of more than 20 yards.
Peyton Manning, as usual, led Indy's offense, recording his eighth 4,000-yard passing season, and Reggie Wayne has been the main beneficiary, putting together a career year with 104 receptions for 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns. Wayne had 10 catches for 140 yards and a TD in the previous meeting with San Diego.
Colts running back Joseph Addai rushed for 1,072 yards and 12 TDs, but starting with a 56-yard effort against the Chargers, Addai hasn't rushed for more than 72 yards in a game, and he's had just 10 carries since Dec. 23.
On defense, the Chargers will need big games from All-Pro cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who had three of the six interceptions against Manning and finished with a league-leading 10 picks, and linebacker Shawne Merriman, who had 12 1/2 sacks. But Indy's offense line has protected Manning well, allowing only 23 sacks.
Prediction: Hard to imagine the Chargers pulling this one out with Indy healthy. No Gates means one less receiver to worry about, which means perhaps one more in the box to slow L.T. Indianapolis 31, San Diego 20.
Betting Trends.
The Chargers are 9-6 ATS.
The Chargers are 4-4 ATS away.
The Chargers are 1-1 ATS as the underdog.
The Chargers are 1-1 ATS as an away underdog.
The Colts are 8-7 ATS.
The Colts are 5-2 ATS at home.
The Colts are 6-7 ATS as the favorite.
The Colts are 5-2 ATS as a home favorite.
More NFL Trends.
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