The main story line for Sunday's AFC Championship Game between the Chargers and host Patriots is about who may or may not play for San Diego, which is a 14-point underdog (over/under: 47) at WagerWeb.com.
As if San Diego didn't have enough going against it - facing an unbeaten team at home, one that beat the Chargers 38-14 in Week 2 and has a QB in Tom Brady who was nearly perfect in his last game – the Chargers' top three offensive stars are banged up.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers reportedly has a partially torn ACL but says he's optimistic about playing. He did practice Friday, but coach Norv Turner said Rivers would be a game-time decision and is listed as doubtful.
"We want him to be able to move well enough to protect himself," Turner said. "I think he's made progress through the week, and right now he's listed as doubtful and it will be a Sunday morning (decision) - we get out there and get him moving around and watch him drop and see how he can move. ... I think he's got a chance of playing. But right now, it is doubtful."
If he doesn't play, Billy Volek, who led the game-winning drive against Indianapolis last week, gets the call.
"The way I felt Monday morning, I didn't think I'd feel as good as I do right now," Rivers said. "Certainly, it can ease my mind a bit."The good news is in the past 39 seasons, no quarterback has thrown for more yards in his first 10 starts than Volek. The bad news: Volek has made only 10 starts in his eight professional seasons - and only one since 2004.
Meanwhile, NFL rushing leader LaDainian Tomlinson said he thought his hyperextended left knee would be OK for him to start, but Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates, who was San Diego's top receiver this season with 75 catches for 984 yards and nine TDs, was listed as doubtful. Tomlinson, for what it's worth, rushed for just 43 yards on 18 carries in the Week 2 meeting.
San Diego likely needs all three to play to have a chance against the NFL's most potent offense. The good news is that the Chargers have given up averages of 13.1 points and 285.1 yards over the last eight weeks -- all wins -- while forcing 26 turnovers and totaling 26 sacks.
"This defense will challenge us more than any defense we've faced all year," Brady said. "And I hope we play as well as we can, that's the only way I think we're gonna be able to advance through this round is to play our best football.
The Chargers also are averaging 28.5 points per game during their eight-game winning streak. However, the Patriots have gone 7-0 against playoff teams this year and are averaging nearly 37.8 points per game against teams that made the postseason.
And, scarily enough, the New England ground game is starting to flourish around Brady, as Laurence Maroney has rushed for 428 yards in the past four games. In the Week 2 game, Maroney and Kevin Faulk combined for 128 rushing yards on 25 carries, while receivers Randy Moss and Wes Welker combined for 196 receiving yards.
Prediction: San Diego's best defensive player, Shawne Merriman (12 1/2 regular season sacks), dealt with the flu all week and defensive tackle Jamal Williams (ankle) is listed as questionable. Just too many injuries/issues for the Chargers to compete. New England 31, San Diego 13.
Betting Trends
The Chargers are 2-0 ATS.
The Chargers are 1-0 ATS away.
The Chargers are 1-0 ATS as the underdog.
The Chargers are 1-0 ATS as an away underdog.
The Patriots are 0-1 ATS.
The Patriots are 0-1 ATS at home.
The Patriots are 0-1 ATS as the favorite.
The Patriots are 0-1 ATS as a home favorite.
More NFL Trends.
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