Saturday, January 12, 2008

NFL Odds Playoffs - Jaguars at Patriots


The game of the NFL's Divisional Playoff weekend takes place Saturday night in Foxboro, Mass., when the Jacksonville Jaguars visit New England, with the unbeaten Partriots 13.5-point favorites (over/under: 42.5) on WagerWeb.com. New England's players, if it's possible, are saying 16-0 really doesn't matter. "To see what we've accomplished this far is great. But, as coach put it, there's another mountain to climb," NFL MVP Tom Brady said. "We're in the same position as Jacksonville, which is in the same position as Indy, which is in the same position as San Diego." Yet if there's one team no one wanted to play, it would be this Jaguar club, which made history last week by winning at Pittsburgh for the second time in a season - the first team ever to do that. "We love it," Jaguars defensive end Bobby McCray said. "This is what we've been waiting for all year. It's a perfect situation, a perfect stage and we're going to see what we can do." And what should make this game so interesting are the offensive differences. Do I need to remind you how prolific New England was? If so, here it is: The Pats' 589 points scored and 79 touchdowns are NFL records, as was Brady's 50 touchdown passes and Randy Moss' 23 TD receptions. Brady also set a career low for interceptions (eight) and led the NFL in passing yards (4,806) and passer rating (117.2). Moss, meanwhile, caught 98 passes for 1,493 yards -- second in the NFL behind Indianapolis' Reggie Wayne. If opposing defenses double team the 6-foot-4 Moss, then Brady looks for Welker, who tied for the league lead with 112 receptions for 1,175 yards and eight touchdowns.So the Patriots clearly favor the passing game, although running back Laurence Maroney's did rush for more than 100 yards in two of his last three games. But the Jacksonville defense allowed Pittsburgh only 43 yards on 26 carries last week, so let's not pretend the Pats will run much. The Jaguars, meanwhile, allowed only 127 yards passing a game over the final four weeks of the regular season. However, last week, the Jags allowed 337 yards passing and three touchdowns as Ben Roethsliberger helped the Steelers overcome an 18-point deficit before losing 31-29. "We had a few breakdowns last week, but nothing that should cause us to be concerned," cornerback Rashean Mathis said. "We believe in our scheme, trust each other and expect to get it done." However, Jacksonville gave up 49 pass plays of 20 yards or longer this season, ranking 25th in the league. The Jacksonville offense is the polar opposite of New England's. The combination of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew helped Jacksonville to 2,391 rushing yards, an average of 149.4 yards a game that trailed only the Minnesota Vikings (164.6 yards) for the league lead. "They have two great backs and they can hit the home run," Patriots coach Bill Belichick says. "They can come up with a tough yard on third-down or short-yardage, goal-line situations." The Jaguars surpassed 100 yards rushing in 13 of 16 games. They churned out more than 150 yards in half of their games. And the Patriots run defense looked vulnerable late in the season, allowing an average of 124.8 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per carry in five December games. And the Pats did give up big games to the Colts' Joseph Addai, the Ravens' Willis McGahee and the Steelers' Willie Parker this season, although New England obviously won all those games. Jacksonville QB David Garrard is counted on to protect the ball and complete short third-down passes to move the chains, which he did most of the season. But last week, he completed only nine of 21 passes for 140 yards, and he threw two interceptions. The two picks were one fewer than he had all season. On the injury front, rookie Jaguars DT Derek Landri may fill in once again for injured starter Johnx Henderson (questionable) against the Patriots. Henderson, probably the team's best run-stuffer, was injured early in the game against the Steelers. But Landri filled in very capably, created two turnovers and a sack. Prediction: If Jacksonville leads after the third quarter, book it. The Jags have won 22 consecutive games when leading at that point. And the Jags can score, having put up 24 points or more in a franchise-record 11 consecutive games. I have little doubt the Jags will cover the spread here. But can they win? You figure they have to put up at least 27 points to do that, and holding New England to 26 or less would be a chore. The Jags come close. New England 31, Jacksonville 23.Betting TrendsThe Jaguars are 8-7 ATS. The Jaguars are 2-5 ATS away. The Jaguars are 3-2 ATS as the underdog. The Jaguars are 2-2 ATS as an away underdog. The Patriots are 8-7 ATS. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS at home. The Patriots are 5-7 ATS as the favorite. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS as a home favorite. More NFL Trends.

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