Monday, April 7, 2008

NCAA Championship game odds: Kansas vs. Memphis


2008 NCAA Tournament Bracket
2008 NCAA Tournament Schedule
NCAA Tournament Bracket

Two very similar teams meet Monday night to conclude the college basketball season when co-No. 1 seeds Memphis (38-1) and KansasWagerWeb.com.

Both teams won their conference regular-season and tournament, and both stormed to 18-point victories in Saturday's Final Four semifinals, Memphis over UCLA, and Kansas over North Carolina.

The Jayhawks and Tigers rank 1-2 nationally in scoring margin and thrive in man-to-man defense. Memphis is among the top 10 in field goal percentage defense, blocked shots and assist-turnover ratio, Kansas in shooting percentage, 3-point percentage, assists and field goal percentage defense.

"They look like a mirror image of us," Memphis forward Joey Dorsey said. "They have a dominant backcourt. They're long, athletic, and can bring four big men off the bench."

KU coach Bill Self joked that with their fast-paced styles of play, it was likely that Kansas or Memphis led the country in lobs for dunks. He said that he and Memphis coach John Calipari, with rosters stocked with talented players, faced a similar challenge.

"Getting really talented guys to be very, very unselfish and understand that it's going to be a different guy every night," Self said. "With them, it's primarily two guys. With us, you never know. I think it will be a fun Monday night."

Chris Douglas-Roberts, at 6-foot-7, and the 6-3 Derrick Rose could be the Tigers' biggest advantage because Kansas' starting guards, Mario Chalmers and Russell Robinson, are 6-1; Robinson likely will get the defensive call on Rose. The top reserve guard, Sherron Collins, is only 5-11.

Douglas-Roberts and Rose combined for 53 points Saturday and have carried the load all tournament - while Kansas is more balanced with seven players averaging between 7.2 and 13.4 points.Brandon Rush (6-foot-6) and Douglas-Roberts could be the key matchup in this game. Douglas-Roberts is the leading scorer in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 23.6 points in the Tigers' five NCAA triumphs. Rush is arguably the most athletic of KU's many athletes.

Rush is averaging a more modest 16.6 points per game during Kansas' NCAA run. But he had 25 in the semifinal win over North Carolina and made crucial all-around plays down the stretch.

Rush is Kansas' top 3-point shooter at 42.3 percent. CD-R makes 41 percent of his 3-pointers but relies on what Rose describes as "old man" moves to befuddle opponents. Douglas-Roberts has made more free throws (155) than any player on Kansas has attempted.

The most difficult matchup for Memphis will be inside. The Jayhawks have four capable big men and would like to force Memphis to take out a guard - the Tigers start three - and form a bigger lineup.

"The way they run their offense is different than the way we run it, but the philosophy's still the same," Self said. "Get the ball to the paint."

Kansas' Darrell Arthur, Sasha Kaun and Darnell Jackson will have to help when Rose and Douglas-Roberts drive in the paint. Arthur, the team's second-leading scorer, set the tone early against North Carolina with
a big block. Memphis forwards Joey Dorsey (15 rebounds vs. UCLA), Robert Dozier and backup Shawn Taggart help the transition game get going with rebounds and defense.

One key stat: As fast as Memphis plays, it doesn't get sloppy - averaging only 8.4 turnovers in tournament play. KU is averaging 14.4 turnovers in the tourney.

Tonight marks Memphis' second title-game appearance - the Tigers lost to Bill Walton and UCLA in 1973. Kansas won the tournament in 1952 and '88, and its 13 Final Fours rank fourth all-time.

Betting trends: Kansas enters having covered 8 of 11. KU is 7-1 in its last eight as an underdog. It has gone under the total in four straight. ... Memphis has covered its last three, but the Tigers are just 7-13 in their last 20 against the spread. The Tigers have exceeded the total in five straight contests.

Prediction: I'm tired of not believing in Memphis. As good as Kansas was in the first half against UNC, you wonder if the Jayhawks expended too much energy. The Tigers win their first national title.
(36-1) face off in San Antonio for the NCAA championship, with the Tigers 1.5-point favorites (over/under: 146.5) on

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