Horse Racing Betting - Big Brown Big Again at Louisville?

Three years ago Bellamy Road roared to a 17 ½-length victory in the Wood Memorial, equaling the Aqueduct record of 1:47 for 1 1/8 miles on the main track set by Riva Ridge.

Riva Ridge was 4 at the time in 1973, a year after he won the Kentucky Derby. His final prep at 3 was the Blue Grass in Keeneland where he scored.

Bellamy Road went into the ’05 Derby favored over 19 other 3-year-olds. But the son of Concerto, never reached the lead, gained second in the stretch and faded to seventh.

Now Big Brown is the speedster on the Road to the Roses. Both colts had one thing in column:

They led both their preps as sophomores at every call and won by big margins. Bellamy Road averaged 16 ½ lengths while Big Brown averaged more than 8 ¾ lengths.

However, Bellamy Road went to Churchill Downs with five career starts while Big Brown only has run three times. Bellamy Road’s races were all on the dirt and he won four. Undefeated Big Brown scored once on the turf as a 2-year-old.

So are we expecting too much from the Florida Derby champ? Perhaps, but it appears he might go into the Kentucky Derby as the favorite since he ended up the 3-1 choice in Pool 3 of futures wagering. He wasn’t even listed in the first two pools.Big Brown’s five-length victory in the Florida Derby on March 31 was the third best in the past dozen years. In ’03, the record 9 ¾ lengths was posted by Empire Maker, runner-up to Funny Cide at Louisville. In ’96, the margin was 5 ¼ lengths by Unbridled’s Song, who didn’t hit the board at Churchill Downs.

In the past 28 Runs for the Roses, the winning margin averaged about two lengths. For the seven years beginning in ’01, the Derby champ was victorious by nearly 3 ¼ lengths, with the ill-fated Barbaro coming off the pace to triumph by 6 1/2 lengths, second biggest in history.

During the previous seven years, less than a length separated the winner from the runner-up. The closest races were in ’99, Charismatic, by a neck; ’97, Silver Charm, a head; and ’96, Grindstone, a nose.

Four Derby champs share the record for the top margin of eight lengths: Old Rosebud, ’14; Johnstown, ’39; Whirlaway, ’41; and Assault, ’46. Whirlaway and Assault won the Triple Crown.

So far, Big Brown’s speed figures this year are higher than any other contender. And lightly raced horses have done well during the past decade at Louisville.

But Big Brown is trying to buck the odds concerning experience. He had only one race as a 2-year-old and that was on the grass. And he’s among several sophomores attempting to become the first since Exterminator in ’18 to score with only four trips to the post.

Curlin came into last year’s Derby with nary a race as a juvenile and only two preps. Alas, he finished a valiant third.

But the son of Smart Strike won the Preakness and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and was voted the Horse of the Year. Then he captured this year’s Dubai World Cup.

We shall see if Big Brown can do as well.