I’ve found over the years that it’s better to leisurely handicap the Kentucky Derby for at least a week than start researching on the eve of the first Saturday in May.
Sometimes I take more time when the race appears wide open. Well, this year’s 134th edition is just that.
First, I seclude myself in the quiet confines of my home office after assembling files, which include key preps that I’ve saved along the Road to the Roses dating back to February.
Secondly, I don’t try to assimilate so much information that it confuses rather than helps me. I stick to my general handicapping toolbox that includes speed figures, key races, running styles, distances and track surfaces, plus a couple of new wrinkles each year. I also keep abreast of so-called Derby curses.
Street Sense last year ended a couple of so-called jinxes that existed for decades, including winning off two preps. Previously, only two horses in the past six decades did: Sunny’s Halo in ’83 and Jet Pilot in ’47.
This year there are six contenders hoping to duplicate that feat:
Big Brown: The likely favorite posted the top speed figure this year easily winning Florida Derby. But the undefeated son of Boundary also has three career starts and no runner with four outings has won since Exterminator in 1918.
Colonel John: Son of Tiznow has stakes victories in two ’08 outings, but nary a triple digit speed figure in six career. California invader is trying dirt for the first time.Monba: He vaulted into the Top3 after Blue Grass victory. Maria’s Mon sibling won on synthetic and dirt surfaces, including Churchill Downs at 2. Keep tabs on his workouts at track.
Recapturetheglory: Illinois Derby winner triggered memories of War Emblem in ’02 wiring the field in both derbies. However, it won’t be easy getting the lead in Louisville.
Tale of Ekati: Wood Memorial hero tries to become the second winner since ’81 when Pleasant Colony triumphed at Churchill Downs. Fusaichi Pegasus did in ’08. He’ll be in the first flight.
Court Vision: This colt reminds me of Funny Cide, winless in three preps, but hit the board twice in ’03. I got 59-1 in my Kentucky Derby futures play and hit the trifecta via simulcasting. Son of Gulch must stay closer and step way up his speed. Won stakes at Churchill Downs last year and posted a bullet work at the track on April 17.
Forget about the horse-for-course angle. In the past decade, only one colt that had one or more starts at the track repeated -- Street Sense. Average finish of nearly 50 runners, including nearly two dozen that had previously won over the main track, was well off the board.
More import is how horses handle the main track working toward the Derby. The last two winners posted bullets.
And don’t worry about finding value in the Derby. Since Spectacular Bid won in 1979, only three favorites smelled the roses – all in the 21st Century: Street Sense, 9-2; Fusaichi Pegasus, nearly, 5-2; and Smarty Jones, 4-1 in ’04.
Naturally, fuller fields lead to higher payoffs. From ’92 to ’07, derbies averaged more than 17 ½ runners. There were 18 or more horses entered in 11 of those 16 years, with the lowest, 13, once.
Compare that to the ’60s and ’70s when during a 17-year span nine top choices scored from Carry Back in ’61 to Seattle Slew in ’77. Derbies averaged less than 13 ½ horses in 17 years as fields exceeded 18 twice. There were a dozen runners or fewer five times.
An injury to top contender War Pass announced over the weekend already is affecting Derby futures wagering odds. X-rays showed the son of Cherokee Run suffered a small fracture in his left front ankle, probably during the Wood Memorial on April 5 when he ran second.
My handicapping formula includes selecting horses displaying good tactical swiftness with the ability to stalk over pure speed or those that rally from off the pace, but not too far back. Add pinches of handling bad traffic situations and pedigrees that display stamina.
Finally, stir in a hunch or two and you have my recipe for success.
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