Tonight’s game in Phoenix is doing or die for Golden State - although even a win probably will only delay the Warriors’ playoff fate for a few days.
The Warriors are a half game behind No. 8 Denver in the Western Conference. If Golden State loses tonight, the Nuggets will be in the postseason since they hold the tiebreaker over the Warriors.
Golden State can only reach the playoffs if it wins its final two contests and Denver drops its last game of the season at home to the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday (unlikely). Golden State, which is 21-19 on the road, will close out the regular season on Wednesday at home against Seattle.
"Everybody on this team knows we have to win the rest of our games," the Warriors’ Stephen Jackson said. "We can't worry about (the Nuggets) and hope that they lose, we have to go out there and play and if it happens, it happens. We can't worry about them, we gotta take care of our own business."
The Warriors, 4.5-point betting underdogs (over/under: 230.5) on WagerWeb.com, will be trying to win back-to-back games for the first time since a three-game winning streak from March 7-12. However, they've lost their last five trips to Phoenix since a 110-100 victory March 18, 2005.
Phoenix, meanwhile, is likely going to finish No. 6 in the West regardless. So, there is a good chance the starters will play some shorter minutes tonight. The Suns are 28-11 at home.
”We’d like to win, but we want to make sure that come Saturday, everyone is ready to go,” Phoenix coach Mike D’ Antoni said. “I’ll look at Golden State’s (situation), but this is about the Phoenix Suns. I’m sorry about anyone else. We’d like to be playing well so I want to lean toward everybody playing well.”Phoenix has clinched a postseason spot, but a 3-3 record in April prevented the Suns from having a chance at home-court advantage throughout the West playoffs. They also won't win the Pacific Division, as the Los Angeles Lakers clinched that Friday night.
Steve Nash could certainly use some rest: He is averaging only 13.2 points on 38.8 percent shooting in the last six games.
Phoenix is 16-11 with Shaquille O’ Neal and 19-13 since the trade.
Phoenix leads the all-time series 122-78 and the Suns have won seven of the past 11 meetings. But the Warriors have taken two of three games this season and had a three-game winning streak snapped when the Suns won 123-115 on March 13 in Phoenix.
In that meeting, the Warriors ran O'Neal into foul trouble to take away his inside presence, and then were run off the court as the Suns resumed their run-and-gun ways.
Since that loss, the Warriors have won only twice in nine tries against playoff-contending teams. They beat the Lakers 115-111 in Los Angeles on March 23 and the Dirk Nowitzki-less Mavs at home 114-104 on March 30, but their last four tries have ended in losses.
Betting trends: Under is 7-1 in Warriors’ last 8 road games. ... Warriors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Pacific. ... Over is 39-12 in Golden State’s last 51 Monday games. ... Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. ... Suns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games. ... Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these teams.
Prediction: See that last trend? I think the Warriors as 4.5-point underdogs are one of the plays of the year tonight and will win outright.
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