Tuesday, April 29, 2008

NBA odds: Rockets vs. Jazz


You could say that the Houston Rockets are in trouble. They are down 2-0 (dropping both at home) to the Utah Jazz heading into tonight's Game 3 in Salt Lake City - a place the Jazz were an NBA-best 37-4 this season (although one of those losses was to the Rockets). No wonder Utah is a sizable 9-point betting favorite (over/under: 182.5) on WagerWeb.com.

However, the Rockets are likely to get a key player back tonight in point guard Rafer Alston.

Losing Alston meant Tracy McGrady had to carry too much of an offensive burden in the first two games. It also meant going without Alston's averages of 13.1 points and 5.3 assists. And by moving Bobby Jackson into the starting lineup, the Rockets lose Jackson's vital contributions off the bench.

"I get to go back to the bench (when Alston returns), and our bench has been struggling to score points," said Jackson, who is averaging 12.5 points in the first two games but shooting only 31 percent from the floor. "Their bench is outscoring our bench (54-32 in the first two games)."

Jackson and rookie Aaron Brooks did combine for 29 points on 12 of 26 in Game 2 but were only 4-for-22 shooting in Game 1.Jackson still may start Game 3 because McGrady and coach Rick Adelman are skeptical of what Alston can offer after missing a week of practice time.

"We don't know, when he comes back, how effective he's going to be," McGrady said. "With two playoff games under each team's belt and the speed of the game and the physicality of it, we don't know if he's going to be ready for that when he first gets back."

McGrady has averaged 21.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in the two games and was one assist away from a triple-double in Game 2, but has scored just one point in the fourth quarter this series.

In Games 1 and 2, Houston shot 39.1 percent, including 10-for-41 from the 3-point line. McGrady has made 16 of 43 shots - that's 37.2 percent. He is 1-for-9 from the 3-point line.

"We're giving him a lot of different looks," Utah's Ronnie Brewer said. "But we know he's going to be aggressive and we know he's capable of scoring a lot of points - 40 or 50 points."

Deron Williams leads the Jazz in scoring at 21 points per game and averaged 7.5 assists in the two games at Houston.

Houston has lost two straight Game 3s in the postseason, while the Jazz have captured three of their last four Game 3s.

Utah is 6-1 in its last seven playoff games against Houston, going back to last year. In that first-round series, the Rockets averaged only 78 points in three games at EnergySolutions Arena and lost by 12, 13 and 14 points.

Betting trends: Under is 11-2 in Rockets' last 13 vs. Northwest Division. ... Rockets are 23-8-3 ATS in their last 34 Thursday games. ... Jazz are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. ... Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Utah.

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