Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Golf odds: The Masters


Let's not even pretend this year's Masters is about anyone other than Tiger Woods, who has four green jackets already and nine wins in his last 11 worldwide starts.

No to mention eight top-10 Masters finishes in 13 events and a lifetime score at Augusta of 71.0 to rank first all-time. He has possibly the shortest odds in history to win a major and the Grand Slam, something he says is attainable.

"You have to understand why I said that, because I've done it before - I've won all four in a row," said Woods, who is the -130 betting favorite on WagerWeb.com this week.

Still, I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't make a case for someone other than Tiger to win here - because that's the only way to win some money if you are betting to win (there are bets on WagerWeb.com other than who will win, such as top 5 finishers, top Australasian, top European, top rest of the world, etc.)

So here goes:

Tiger actually has only won at Augusta once in the past five years. Last year, he didn't break par in any of his four rounds, but conditions were brutal in 2007 - for what it's worth, it's supposed to be very windy in Augusta this Sunday as well.

Zach Johnson (+6000), if you don't remember, won it last year, with the tournament's highest-ever total of 289.

World No. 2 Phil Mickelson (+700) has won twice here, but his best finish in the past four PGA Tour events is T-17. He did win the Northern Trust Open earlier this year and finished second at the FBR Open – but those were both on the West Coast. He has 10 top-10 finishes in 15 Masters.Another former champ, Vijay Singh (+1200), has switched back to a conventional length putter and is playing well heading into Augusta. He has made the top 10 at Augusta five times in the last six years and with top-3 finishes in his last two Masters.

World No. 3 Ernie Els (+1700) has no top-20 finishes in the past three Masters and pulled out of last week's tournament with an illness, but he did have five consecutive top-6 finishes at Augusta prior to his recent slump there.

Perhaps the player not named Tiger playing the best on Tour right now is Aussie Geoff Ogilvy (+1000). He finished second last week in Houston, his first tournament since ending Tiger's winning streak with a victory at the CA Championship.

Also playing well is Justin Leonard (+8000), who has made cuts in all nine events he has played this year, and in four events he finished in the top 10; and Sweden's Henrik Stenson (+4500) has registered four top 10s in his last six starts.

England's Justin Rose (+3000) has finished top 15 in his last three events, came in no lower than 12th in the four majors last season and finished fifth in the '07 Masters.

South African Retief Goosen (+2300) has three consecutive top-three finishes at Augusta – although he has struggled on Tour this season.

Fred Couples (+5000) looks revitalized after last week's third-place finish in Houston, and he has not missed a cut in 23 straight trips to Augusta.

Adam Scott (+1500) was a chic pick at Augusta before withdrawing with a virus from last week's Houston Open after following a first-round 63 with a 76. If he has recovered, he's a threat.

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