Wednesday, April 16, 2008

NBA odds: Jazz vs. Spurs


The NBA regular season comes to a close Wednesday night, and the Utah Jazz can make their playoff lives rather simple by winning in San Antonio: A No. 3 seed in the West awaits with a victory and homecourt advantage for at least the first round of the playoffs.

The problem: Utah hasn't won in San Antonio since February 1999, dropping 20 consecutive road games to the Spurs.

"We're well aware of that," Jazz forward Carlos Boozer said.

And a win tonight could mean the Jazz would then have to face the defending champion Spurs in the first round; Utah, however, is a 4-point betting underdog (over/under: 182) on WagerWeb.com.

"We haven't had that many good games down there,' Utah's Deron Williams said. "I thought we played well the first time we played down there this season, but they pretty much took care of us in the playoffs last year. We've just got to find a way to win there."

Homecourt advantage would mean a lot to the Jazz, who own the best home record in the NBA at 37-4. Utah, whose home record is its best since going 38-3 in 1996-97, is just 17-23 on the road.

Utah has won nine of its last 11 games, including a home victory over the Spurs, who are 33-7 at home. The Jazz actually have won the last two meetings with San Antonio, most recently that 90-64 victory on March 4 as the Spurs matched the lowest point total in franchise history.Utah has had Tim Duncan's number somewhat this year, forcing seven turnovers from him in one game and limiting him to 15 points and 10 rebounds in another game. San Antonio has scored 64, 72, 79 and 85 points in games this month.

The Spurs also can wrap up the third seed with a win, but have dropped three of their last six games and have alternated wins and losses over the past seven games. The three losses came against playoff-bound teams by one-sided margins - by 26 at Utah, 17 at home against Phoenix and by 21 at the L.A. Lakers.

If the Spurs lose, it's quite possible there would be a four-way tie for third in the West, which would leave them as the sixth seed and force them to open the playoffs on the road against the Jazz.

Before breaking out for 101 points in a victory at Sacramento on Monday, the Spurs had averaged 79 in their previous five games.

Manu Ginobili, who leads the Spurs in scoring (19.6 ppg), did not play in Monday's game vs. the Kings. He has missed San Antonio's last two games with a strained left groin, and is questionable tonight.

San Antonio did get Brent Barry back (he was out 80 days) on Monday. Before his injury, Barry was the team's deadliest 3-point shooter, hitting 43 percent from beyond the arc and averaging 7.3 points per game off the bench. He was 0 for 3, all on 3-pointers, in four minutes against Sacramento.

Betting trends: Under is 9-2-1 in Utah's last 12 vs. Southwest Division. ... Spurs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Northwest Division. ... Favorite is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings. ... Home team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.

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