Monday, April 21, 2008

MLB odds: Mets vs. Cubs


Monday’s Mets-Cubs game at Wrigley Field could very well be an early NLCS preview, with both teams sitting near the top of their respective divisions and playing well; Chicago is a -139 money line betting favorite (over/under: 8.5) on WagerWeb.com.

The Cubs scored 26 runs and had 30 hits in their last two wins during a three-game home sweep of the Pirates.

"Two games in a row we've put some runs on the board," manager Lou Piniella said. "We've had a lot of good hitting. Our offense the last couple days has really swung the bats well."

Sunday’s win was Chicago's ninth straight against the Pirates, matching the Cubs' longest win streak against them since Sept. 5, 1938 to May 13, 1939. At 12-6, the Cubs matched their best 18-game start since 2004.

However, the record may be a bit misleading. Half of the Cubs' 12 wins have come against the terrible Pirates, and 11 of the 12 against the Central. They're 1-2 against East contender Philadelphia.

And East contender definitely fits the Mets, who are coming off a Sunday night loss at Philly that ended New York’s five-game winning streak.Ace Carlos Zambrano (2-1, 3.04 ERA) toes the rubber for the Cubs on Monday; he is 3-1 lifetime against the Mets with a 3.30 ERA in six appearances, five starts. Big Z took a no-decision in his last start against New York on Aug. 3, 2007, surrendering just one run on two hits over five innings, although he walked seven in that game.

Zambrano is 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA in three home starts this season after going 6-9 with a 4.96 ERA in 17 games there last year.

New York counters with RHP John Maine (1-1, 3.78 ERA). In two appearances at Wrigley Field in his career, he has allowed six runs in 3 2/3 innings for a 14.73 ERA. In his only road start this season, he took the loss in Atlanta, allowing four runs on eight hits over four innings. He has walked 12 batters in 16 2/3 innings this season.

Chicago won only two of seven matchups against New York in 2007, including one of three at home. Both of those victories came against Maine, who had a 10.57 ERA in those contests.

Four of New York's most dangerous hitters – Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran and David Wright -- are a combined 8-for-47 lifetime against Zambrano. But Wright is one of the hottest players in the majors: going 16-for-34 (.471) with three homers and 12 RBIs in the last nine games.

Meanwhile, Cubs rookie Kosuke Fukudome was scratched from the lineup two hours before game time Sunday, partly because of what is described as a "small cyst" above his right eye. Fukudome was wearing a Band-Aid over the small area and is expected back in the lineup for Monday night's game. Fukudome is hitting .317 with nine RBIs. Fellow outfielder Alfonso Soriano remains on the DL with a calf injury, although he may run some this week.

Mets catcher Brian Schneider is questionable after taking a foul tip off the forearm in Saturday's game. Outfielder Moises Alou will miss the series, though he is close to returning from a hernia.

Betting trends: Over is 11-4 in Mets’ last 15 road games. ... Mets are 15-7 in Maine’s last 22 road starts. ... Cubs are 7-1 in their last 8 home games. ... Under is 19-7-1 in Zambrano’s last 27 on grass.... Over is 10-1-1 in the teams’ 12 meetings.

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