Tuesday, April 15, 2008

MLB odds: Brewers vs. Cardinals


The surprising St. Louis Cardinals lead the NL Central so far, and they will get a chance to put some early distance between themselves and the second-place Milwaukee Brewers tonight, with St. Louis a -130 money line betting favorite (over/under: 9) at WagerWeb.com.

It's a big game for Brewers pitcher Dave Bush, who is off to a 0-2 start with an ERA of 8.44. Why? Because young star right-hander Yovani Gallardo is making a rehab start for Triple-A Nashville today. Brewers manager Ned Yost says Gallardo will then be worked into the rotation, but he's not sure what spot he'll take. It will be Bush’s spot unless he comes up big tonight.

Bush is 1-3 with a 7.61 ERA in four career starts against the Cardinals. In his only start in St. Louis, he allowed seven earned runs in six innings of an 8-3 loss.

And we should find out over the next three weeks whether the Cardinals are real. They will play 15 of their next 19 games at Busch Stadium, where they are 5-1. Sixteen of the games are against National League Central rivals Milwaukee, Houston, Cincinnati, Chicago and Pittsburgh, including 12 at home.

The Cardinals were 8-7 against the Brewers last season and have not dropped a season series against Milwaukee since 1999.

Milwaukee is getting surprising production from outfielder Gabe Kapler, who is batting .423 (11-for-26) with four home runs and 11 RBIs this season - his first with Milwaukee after spending last year as a minor league manager in the Boston Red Sox's system.

The last time Kapler had at least four homers in a season was 2004, with Boston. He didn't get No. 4 that season until July 21, in his 159th at-bat.

"I'm not so sure when he wakes up in the morning if it's not all been a dream," Yost said. "He's just done so well. It's unbelievable what he's been able to do."Bill Hall is also hitting well, with five home runs, while veteran catcher Jason Kendall is batting .405 with a .452 on-base percentage.

Those three players’ hot stars have helped make up for the struggles of Milwaukee’s two MVP-caliber hitters. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun combined for 84 homers and 216 RBIs last season, but both have struggled in the first weeks of the season.

Fielder, who hit 50 homers last year, has yet to hit one, and is batting .222 in 12 games. Braun isn't doing much better, hitting .226.

Meanwhile, St. Louis starters were 5-0 with a 0.96 ERA in the first six games of the season, but have gone 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA in seven starts since. Braden Looper (2-0, 3.09 ERA) looks to turn things around on Tuesday. Looper pitched 5 2-3 innings on Wednesday against Houston, allowing three runs and five hits in a 6-4 win.

The right-hander is 3-4 with a 4.93 ERA in 29 appearances against the Brewers. In three starts - all last year - he was 1-2 with a 7.88 ERA.

A few Milwaukee hitters have feasted against Looper: Kendall is batting .467 (7-for-15), Hall .357, Rickie Weeks .500 and J.J. Hardy .444.

Albert Pujols, as usual, is leading the Cards at the plate, hitting .390 with three homers and eight RBIs. Ryan Ludwick is batting .343 with three homers and 10 RBIs, and Rick Ankiel (.286, four homers, 11 RBIs), Yadier Molina (.289) and Chris Duncan (.308) also have been swinging the bat well. Molina is 4-for-7 (.571) with three home runs in his career against Bush.

The Cards, incidentally, are 37-32 and have improved their key offensive numbers since Manager Tony La Russa decided to hit his pitcher No. 8 instead of No. 9 late last year and continuing into this one.

Betting trends: Over is 7-2-1 in Dave Bush’s last 10 starts overall. ... Under is 13-4-1 in Cardinals’ last 18 Tuesday games. ... Brewers are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings vs. Cards. ... Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. ... Brewers are 5-0 in Bush’s last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. ... Cardinals are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. ... Cardinals are 6-1 in Looper’s last 7 starts as a home favorite.

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