Can the West's No. 8 team upset the No. 1 for the second year in a row? We find out beginning Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles when the top-seeded Lakers host the Nuggets, with Denver an 8-point betting underdog (over/under: 223) on WagerWeb.com.
An upset isn't as unlikely as it sounds. The Nuggets won 50 games - the most wins ever by a No. 8 seed. The NBA switched to a 16- team playoff in 1983- 84, and the seven wins separating the No. 1 Lakers and No. 8 Nuggets make the narrowest gap ever.
Everyone says the Nuggets have no defensive presence: Denver finished No. 2 in the NBA in points scored and points allowed - behind only Golden State in both categories.
The Nuggets averaged 110.7 points per game. The Lakers were fourth at 108.6 points. But the Nuggets allowed 107 points per game, while the Lakers allowed 101.3. Denver was the No. 2 defensive rebounding team in the NBA. Of course, the No. 1 Lakers led the entire league with 33.1 per game.
"That team could be where we are now," Lamar Odom said of the Nuggets. "This is playoff time. It's going to be a challenge. They're great 1-on-1 players; they've got four or five guys who can get 20 points in a game."
Bad news for Denver is that it has gone 2-15 against the Lakers at Staples Center since it opened in 1999. And the Lakers were 3-0 against the Nuggets this season, winning by an average of 16.3 points. But the
teams haven't played since Jan. 21.The Nuggets play a wide-open, go-for-broke defense, trying for steals to fuel their fast breaks. Just as often, they miss. This accounts for the fact that the Nuggets led the NBA in games lost by 30 points or more. They also won 10 regular-season games by 20 points or more.
"They probably have more talent than anyone in the NBA," TNT's Charles Barkley said. "If they just tried to play defense, they could be scary."
You'll hear plenty about Kobe (28.3 ppg) and Iverson (26.4 ppg) and Carmelo (25.7 pgg) in this series, but the key matchup could be Denver's Marcus Camby vs. the Lakers' Pau Gasol.
L.A. is 22-5 since Gasol arrived, and he comes into the playoffs on a roll: 18.8 ppg on 61 percent shooting. Camby, up for defensive player of the year honors, recorded a career-best 13.1 boards per game, but his offense fell off considerably (a career-low 10.4 ppg per 40 minutes). His 3.6 blocks per game led the league by a wide margin.
Denver will also need power forward Kenyon Martin to step up: He has only 24 points in three games against the Lakers. The player he will be matched up against, Odom is playing some of his best basketball. Odom averaged 16.1 ppg on 63 percent shooting in April; the Lakers went 7-1 in those games.
L.A.'s biggest post threat, Andrew Bynum, is not likely to play in this series while still recovering from knee surgery.
Betting trends: Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles. . Home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings. . Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. . Under is 14-3 in Nuggets' last 17 playoff games as an underdog.
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