Monday, April 21, 2008

NBA odds: Wizards vs. Cavs


Well, all that smack talking did the Washington Wizards no good. The ultra-confident Wizards dropped Game 1 to the Cavs 93-86 in Cleveland, with really no one playing particularly well when it mattered (i.e., the fourth quarter).

The Wizard carried a four-point lead into the fourth quarter Saturday but then went 4-of-20 in the period and misfired on 10 straight shots in the final 4:38.

"They are not going to continue to miss those open looks," Cleveland's LeBron James said.

Washington guard DeShawn Stevenson was only 1-for-9 in Game 1. Antawn Jamison had 23 points 19 rebounds but went 0-for-5 in the fourth and missed three straight shots - two of them 3s - that could have changed the outcome. He was 1-for-8 from behind the arc overall. Point guard Antonio Daniels played just 20 minutes and had only one assist. And outside of Gilbert Arenas, who had 24 points in 28 minutes, Washington's bench was woeful. Darius Songaila went 1-of-6, Roger Mason went 0-of-4 on four horrible attempts and Andray Blatche didn't take a shot.

Arenas, it turns out, sprained his right wrist in the late stages of Saturday's game and didn't practice Sunday, but you can be assured he will be in the lineup for Game 2 on Monday night, where Washington is a 1.5-point betting underdog (over/under: 187) on WagerWeb.com.

The Cavs were the much more aggressive team in the series opener, going to the free throw line 20 more times than the Wizards, who knocked James around whenever possible.

"I have no problem getting hit," said James, who went to the free-throw line 14 times and scored 32, points overall. "But there's a difference between a foul and a LeBron foul. If that's what their game plan is, I have to be able to get back up and continue to let my game speak for itself."Despite losing their eighth straight Game 1, the Wizards were encouraged by their performance.

"I had some open shots," Jamison said. "I took four or five that I should have thought about, and a couple of 3s where I could have drove and created shots for other people. But I got some decent shots out there.
I'm not beating myself upside the head for taking them."

Jamison likely will get those same shots again tonight if the Cavs don't adjust. Defended primarily by Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao, whose instincts tell them to get back and protect the paint, Jamison repeatedly found himself open at the 3-point line.

"I want (Wallace) to make Jamison work as hard as possible," Cavs coach Mike Brown said. "We're not going to shut Jamison down. He's too good and too talented."

The Cavs, meanwhile, got great Game 1s from center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who had 22 points and 11 rebounds, and point guard Delonte West, who finished with 16 points, five rebounds, five assists, two steals, two blocks and just one turnover in 35 minutes. Cleveland committed only eight as a team.

On top of that, after getting torched early by Arenas, West played great defense down the stretch, when "Agent Zero" was 0-of-4 from the field.

The bad news? Wally Szczerbiak made just 2-of-10 shots and Anderson Varejao was just 1-for-6. The Cavaliers shot just 39.5 percent from the field, with James the only Cav to make at least 50 percent of his shots.

History is on the Cavs' side. In 363 prior best-of-seven series, Game 1 winners have gone on to win 78.2 percent of the time, with Cleveland owning a perfect 6-0 mark in series where it's won the first game.

If the Wizards score 100 points tonight, they are likely to win: Washington won only 10 games this season when it scored fewer than 100 points. Meantime, the Cavs won only nine games in regulation when they allowed at least 100 points.

Betting trends: Over is 21-8 in Wizards' last 29 vs. Eastern Conference. ... Under is 17-5 in Cavs' last 22 home games. ... Cavs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. ... Cavs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. ... Under is 15-6 in the teams' last 21 meetings in Cleveland.

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