Thursday, April 24, 2008

NBA odds: Suns vs. Spurs


Is there any way that Tuesday night's Game 2 of the Suns-Spurs series can surpass Saturday's incredible Game 1? San Antonio is a 2-point betting favorite (over/under 191) on WagerWeb.com to take a 2-0 lead tonight.

The Spurs won the series opener 117-15 in double overtime, thanks mainly to an unlikely Tim Duncan 3-point shot. Still, you have to think the Suns are confident and the Spurs not exactly overconfident heading into Game 2 since it took a near miracle for San Antonio to win Game 1 at home.

"We won in double overtime on our home court, so we're not too confident," said Duncan, who finished with 40 points and 15 rebounds and his first 3-pointer of the season. "We got over the top by just a little bit and we know they're one heck of a team."

Of Duncan's 40 points, the first 22 of those came with the Suns' Shaquille O'Neal on the bench with foul trouble. And even when Duncan was effective with O'Neal on the floor - the Spurs' forward scored nine points against him in the first overtime - the baskets came with the caveat that O'Neal was playing with five fouls.

That's why Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni said he doesn't feel like he has to double-team Duncan. Phoenix still thinks an aggressive, foul-free Shaq should be enough to keep Duncan contained. "He doesn't seem like he gets as many (good shots) with Shaq on him," D'Antoni said.

San Antonio scored 72 points in the paint in Game 1. That is 12 more than Phoenix had given up in any game this season. Though it took two overtimes for the Spurs to get there, the concentration of chances near the rim was much higher after halftime (50 of 77 points came in the paint) than it was in Phoenix's opponents' season highs, when Golden State scored 120 or New Orleans had 132 in a double-overtime game.O'Neal and Amare Stoudemire tied for second in the NBA for most fouls per game. Having O'Neal and Boris Diaw with three and Stoudemire with two by halftime complicated rotations and weakened the help in Game 1.

After trailing by as many as 16 points in the first half and shooting 38 percent, the Spurs shot better than 58 percent after halftime, hit five 3s and outrebounded the Suns 25-18. However, the Suns were 46-5 this season when taking a lead to the fourth quarter and 21-1 on the road during the regular season. That went for naught in the opener but bodes well moving forward.

The turnover contest was pretty even in Game 1 (18 for Phoenix, 17 for San Antonio), but the Spurs capitalized on the mistakes much more often. The Suns scored only nine points off turnovers, while the Spurs scored 25, including five in the final 1:26 of the first overtime to wipe out a five-point Phoenix lead.

On the injury front, the Spurs' Tony Parker, who was knocked hard in the head in Game 1, said he was feeling fine Monday. And Suns coach Mike D'Antoni said Grant Hill, who has suffered from a groin injury, should be 100 percent for Tuesday; Hill only played 28 minutes in Game 1. And he said Steve Nash, who had the flu, is fully recovered.

Betting trends: Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Tuesday games. ... Over is 6-2 in Suns' last 8 Tuesday games. ... Spurs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. ... Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. ... Spurs are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 playoff games as a favorite.

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