Saturday, April 5, 2008

NASCAR odds: Samsung 500


NASCAR's two-week short-track run ends this week as the Sprint Cup Series visits Texas on Sunday. And perhaps this is the week Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Hendrick Motorsports return to Victory Lane.

Junior lapped the 1.5-mile oval in 28.286 seconds in a Chevrolet, clocking 190.907 mph for his first pole of the season and eighth career. It's his first pole since last August at the Pennsylvania 500.

"I don't consider myself a great qualifier," said Earnhardt, the second favorite at +500 on WagerWeb.com. "I can get the job done, but anytime we get a pole, it gives me and anybody who works with me confidence."

Earnhardt Jr. is looking for his first Sprint Cup victory since joining Hendrick Motorsports this year. None of his 17 Cup victories has come from the pole, and he has not won in 68 races.

A Hendrick driver has won the pole at four of the five tracks where qualifying hasn't been rained out. Jimmie Johnson was the polesitter at Daytona and Jeff Gordon won the last two poles. But Hendrick, which won 18 races last year, has been shut out of Victory Lane so far this season.

"I think a majority of the people are as hungry as I am for a win," Earnhardt said. "The thing that I'm trying not to look past or under-appreciate is how much better I'm doing in my career, in this position I'm in this year, and how much a better situation I'm in and how much happier I am as a person."

Joining Earnhardt on the front row is the Ford of Denny Hamlin (+1200), who posted a lap of 28.498 seconds at 189.487 mph.Defending champion and current points leader Jeff Burton (+1400) qualified in 35th position in a Chevy.

A win two weeks ago at Bristol Motor Speedway and last Sunday's third-place finish at Martinsville Speedway gives Burton 39-point margin over second-place Kevin Harvick, his RCR teammate.

Burton is the only driver to win twice at Texas, last April and the track's first NASCAR Sprint Cup event in1997. Sunday's event also marks the first at Texas with NASCAR's new car.

"Corner speed is the key element to winning at Texas," Burton said. "The place is really fast and it's fast because the corners generate a lot of speed. Having a fast car and good track position is real important."

Texas is the land of parity. In 14 races at the track, there have been 13 different winners -- only Burton has notched more than one victory.

The past champion with the best numbers at Texas is Tony Stewart (+700), winner of the fall 2006 race where he earned a near-perfect Driver Rating of 149.7 (maximum is 150.0). Overall since 2005, Stewart has the top Driver Rating, the top Average Running Position (7.7), the most Fastest Laps Run (195), and the highest percentage of Laps in the Top 15 (88.9%).

Carl Edwards is the favorite this week on WagerWeb.com at +400. Edwards has won twice already this year on tracks similar to Texas: Las Vegas and California.

One driver you won't see this weekend is Kyle Petty. Petty, a 30-year NASCAR veteran, is being replaced in the No. 45 Dodge this weekend with Chad McCumbee, a development driver for Petty Enterprises.

Petty said he did not make the call to sit out the weekend and that he felt the problems the team has suffered are not the fault of the driver.

"No, I don't think I am the problem," Petty said. "But I'm pretty arrogant on that side. I think we have problems, but I don't think Kyle Petty is the problem."

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