Monday, April 14, 2008

NASCAR odds: Subway Fresh Fit 500


NASCAR's first night points race of the season takes place Saturday in Phoenix with the Subway Fresh Fit 500.

Ryan Newman is on the pole for the race, but Carl Edwards has to be considered a favorite (starting on Row 2). Edwards' series-high three wins have come on intermediate tracks -- California, Las Vegas and Texas -- and he almost had a fourth at Atlanta, where he led with 50 laps to go when his engine failed.

Last week at Texas, Edwards lead a race-high 123 laps while building a lead of more than 7 seconds at one point on his way to victory. He is +600 to win tonight at WagerWeb.com.

Phoenix, however, is a flat 1-mile track, and he is winless in seven Phoenix starts. Edwards does have two top-five finishes and four runs in the top 10. In last fall's race at Phoenix, Edwards started from the pole and led 87 of the first 125 laps before his engine failed and he finished 42nd.

Jeff Gordon (+775 at WagerWeb.com) certainly could use some good fortune this week. He has failed to complete three races this season, stands 34th in percentage of laps completed and is only 14th in championship points. He is the defending champ here; he tied the late Dale Earnhardt for sixth place on the career victory list with 76 last year, winning for the first time since July 2006. It ended Gordon's 26-race victory drought and was the only win from the pole through the first 20 years of this event.In 18 career starts at Phoenix, Gordon has 15 top-10 finishes. That's the good news. The bad? He is coming off the second last-place finish of his career.

Kyle Busch (+500) likely will be a factor, as he has won at Phoenix in the Cup, Nationwide and trucks series. In six Cup races, Busch has four top-10 finishes.

Points leader Jeff Burton (+2800) heads into the race with five consecutive top 10s.

"Although we have a bunch of top-10s, Phoenix-style race tracks have been a weakness in our program," Burton said. "Particularly for the 31 team, we haven't done as well at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond as we needed to. For us, this is an important race. We run a lot at these types of race tracks throughout the season, so we need to be better."

Kevin Harvick (+1200) is currently 2nd in the Sprint Cup standings. He has had plenty of success in Phoenix, competing in 10 Cup Series events at the track, compiling five top 10s and two victories. He is second on the driver ratings, trailing only Jimmie Johnson (the WagerWeb.com favorite at +380).

"The pace is a little bit slower," Harvick said. "We had a good test there a couple of weeks ago, and I'm sure the weather will be different when we go back. But the cars were a little bit faster than they were last time. The races have been different there than what they have been in the past. I think that will kind of come back as we get a better handle on the car every week. I don't really see Phoenix as a short track. Phoenix is always a fun race track. There are always at least two lanes, and sometimes even more, to pass. I always seem to do well at Phoenix, so I'm excited to see what we can do with the Chevy this weekend."

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