Tuesday, April 29, 2008

NBA odds: Spurs vs. Suns


The Phoenix Suns head into Friday night's Game 3 of their Western Conference semifinal down 2-0 to the Spurs and possibly without one of their starters - though Phoenix is a 6.5-point betting favorite (over/under: 194) on WagerWeb.com.

Unless Suns forward Grant Hill is certain he is 100 percent healthy by tipoff, he will be kept on the sidelines by Suns coach Mike D'Antoni; as of this writing, Hill is "unlikely."

Hill averaged 13.1 points this season, but suffered a groin strain in the final week of the season. He started against the Spurs in Games 1 and 2, but the injury has limited his effectiveness. He has played only 48 of 106 possible minutes and has scored only five points. He did not play at all in the second half of Game 2.

"If he's on the floor, he needs to be at full speed, so he can run (the floor)," D'Antoni said. "We'll take care of that. If he's not at full speed, he won't play."

Hill's absence will leave the team without one of its better defenders and ball handlers.

Otherwise, D'Antoni says there will be no major alterations in Phoenix's strategy despite the 2-0 hole.

"To be honest with you, we don't want to make a whole lot of changes," he said. "We feel good about the way things are going."

The Suns, after all, did have big leads in the first two games.But they will have to figure out a way to get Leandro Barbosa back into their offense. The Brazilian guard was productive in Game 1, scoring 12 points and nabbing eight rebounds. But in Game 2, he was a complete nonfactor, shooting 0-for-7 in 24 minutes. Barbosa, last year's Sixth Man Award winner, went scoreless Tuesday and has two points since halftime of Game 1.

By comparison, this year's Sixth Man Award winner, San Antonio's Manu Ginobili, is averaging 26.5 points after averaging 19.5 during the regular season.

Barbosa, a 33 percent shooter over the past 12 regular-season and playoff games against San Antonio, missed a 3-pointer with a dwindling shot clock and two more drives in the third quarter of Game 2. D'Antoni sat Barbosa for the game's final 10:04, even with Hill ailing, and played Gordan Giricek more.

"They (the Spurs) do a good job on the pick-and-rolls," Suns point guard Steve Nash said. "Sometimes he (Barbosa) has a hard time with their (big men) near the basket. Maybe he hasn't quite figured where to mix it up with them.

"Only 13 teams have rallied from a 0-2 deficit in a best-of-seven series. The Suns are 3-10 in playoff games against San Antonio in the era of D'Antoni, Nash and Amaré Stoudemire.

The Spurs are trying to make the Suns lose three consecutive games for the first time this season. San Antonio was 22-19 on the road this season and 3-11 in away games against West playoff teams.

Tim Duncan and Tony Parker each has scored 58 points in the first two games of this series on better than 50 percent shooting. San Antonio's 49.4 percent shooting is well ahead of its season's 45.7 percent clip.

Betting trends: Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference quarterfinals games. . Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. . Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog. . Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. . Suns are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. . Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. . Over is 4-0 in Suns' last 4 conference quarterfinals games.

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