Friday, March 28, 2008

NASCAR odds: Goody's Cool Orange 500


After a rare week off, NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series returns this week with a stop at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday for the Goody's Cool Orange 500.

Perhaps this is the week Jimmie Johnson shakes off his poor start to the season. Johnson's past three races have ended with finishes of 18th, 30th and 29th. At this point last year, Johnson had two wins on the way to a career-high 10. He was third in the point standings. This year he is a very uncharacteristic 13th. His previous low through five races was eighth in 2003, his second season.

However, he is the defending champ here and has four career wins at this short track, including the past three races at NASCAR's oldest venue. His average finish is 6.2, and his 120.8 driver rating is second-best during the past three seasons, behind the 124.5 of Jeff Gordon, a seven-time winner at Martinsville.

"There are certain rhythms at Martinsville that I fortunately found and picked up after my first year of being there," Johnson said. "My first race, I did not have the rhythm of the track, and there are a lot of components that go into it."

Johnson finished 35th in his first race at Martinsville. He has finished no worse than ninth in He should get some major competition from Gordon. You have to go back to 2004 to find the last time Gordon finished outside the top five at Martinsville, and he was ninth in October and sixth in April that year. In 30 career starts at Martinsville, Gordon has 18 top-five and 24 top-10 finishes. He comes into Sunday's race ranked 14th in the points standings.

All told, Gordon and Johnson have combined to win eight of the past 10 races at Martinsville. No wonder they are the betting favorites this week on WagerWeb.com.Newcomer Dale Earnhardt Jr., currently the highest-ranked Hendrick Motorsports driver in the Cup standings (fifth place), hasn't been half-bad at Martinsville during his previous stint with former team Dale Earnhardt Inc., either. While Junior has yet to win his first race there, he has seven top-five finishes in 16 career starts.

"Honestly, what has been between me and Victory Lane is Hendrick Motorsports. They have an amazing run going at Martinsville," Earnhardt said. "I run well there due to my short track background, but I seemed to always find myself finishing behind my new teammates."

Hendrick Motorsports could use a win by Gordon, Johnson or Junior. The same organization that has claimed the last two Cup season championships and won 18 of 36 races last season has yet to reach victory lane in 2008.

Tony Stewart says the beating and banging at Martinsville will still be the same, but thanks to the Car of Tomorrow, cars in the wall will be down.

"With these cars, you don't have accidents and the accidental bumping that turns guys around like it use to, with the bumpers matching up like they do now. If you get into a deal, and a guy checks up in front of you, and you run into him on accident, and the guy behind you hits you, you're not going to spin each other out. That kind of makes this stuff fun again, where you're not worried about having to explain to somebody, 'Hey it was an accident. I didn't mean for that to happen,' “says Stewart.

One non-Hendrick driver to watch is Denny Hamlin, who also has a strong resume here: He has four top-10 finishes at Martinsville in five starts.

You may want to stay away from betting on Carl Edwards, however. Mr. Backflip has won two of the first five races but has never had a top-10 finish at Martinsville in seven starts.

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