There’s less than seven weeks to the 134th Kentucky Derby so I guess it’s time to roll out my initial list of the Top 10 for America’s Greatest Race.
Only one thing is certain at this time – no sibling of a Derby champ will wind up in the winner’s circle on the first Saturday in May. Quite a few sires of this year’s contenders ran and some were competitive, but all lost.
So here we go, Dave Letterman style, from the bottom:
10. Big Brown: Some handicappers are hailing this son of Boundary as the hot horse after he ran a mile faster than Cool Coal Man and War Pass on the Fountain of Youth (FOY) card last month. The average winning margin is just two starts is a whopping dozen lengths. Gulfstream Park’s Florida Derby will determine his legitimacy.
9. Fierce Wind, Smooth Air and Denis of Cork: All three at the last minute skipped designated preps this month for various reasons. Fierce Wind, winner of the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, and Smooth Air, the third-place finisher, are scheduled for Gulfstream’s headliner. Southwest Stakes victor Denis of Cork, son of ’02 Derby favorite Harlan’s Holiday that ran seventh, bypassed the Rebel and will point to next month’s Wood Memorial at Aqueduct or the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne.
8. Colonel John or El Gato Malo: They renew their rivalry in April’s Santa Anita Derby after running 1-2 in the Sham. No matter who wins both horses are at a definite disadvantage having only raced on synthetic surfaces en route to Louisville’s dirt track.
7. Elysium Fields or Court Vision: The FOY runner-up and third-place finisher are headed to the Florida Derby on March 29 making it a crowded, key prep. Court Vision, 3-1-1 in 5 starts, did well considering the son Gulch had an awful ride during a terrible trip. Two Florida Derby winners in the 21st Century scored at Churchill Downs: Barbaro in ’06 and Monarchos in ’01.
6. Georgie Boy: Victories in the San Vincente and San Felipe propels the son on Tribal Rule to chief contender on the West Coast and the likely favorite if he opts for the Santa Anita Derby over the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, which would be his first race on the dirt.5. Big Truck: Runner-up to Fierce Wind in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs punched his ticket to Louisville with a victory in the Tampa Bay Derby.
4. Cool Coal Man was 2 for 2 at Gulfstream, including the half-length victory in the FOY. But trainer Nick Zito has opted for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland instead of the Florida Derby as the final prep for the son of Mineshaft. The last FOY winner to capture the Kentucky Derby was Thunder Gulch in ’95 who ran fourth in his final prep – the Blue Grass.
3. Visionaire: Exits the Gotham with a nose victory on the sloppy Aqueduct surface after finishing third to Pyro in the Risen Star. Next outing: Illinois Derby or Blue Grass.
2. War Pass: The ’07 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ had a slight fever before Tampa Bay Derby Day. He was restless in the gate, broke fourth, failed to get the lead, was bumped on both turns and wasn’t asked to pick it up in the stretch, running seventh and last. “He scoped clean after the race,” Zito told Brisnet.com. “He seems fine although he did have some cuts on his left leg when he came back that he probably sustained when jostled around leaving the gate.”
Final prep: the Wood at Aqueduct where the son of Cherokee Run won his first two starts as a 2-year-old.
1. Pyro: He hopes to turn the tables on his nemesis. The son of Pulpit, who captured the ’97 FOY and Blue Grass before running fourth at Louisville, lost three times last year to War Pass. This season he posted two come-from-behind wins at Fair Grounds, the latest by three lengths in the Louisiana Derby. He faces stiffer competition in the Blue Grass, but a victory likely makes him the favorite at Churchill Dows.
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