Monday, March 24, 2008

March Madness odds: Arkansas vs. North Carolina


Yes, East top seed North Carolina will have the Raleigh, N.C., crowd behind it for Sunday's game against No. 9 seed Arkansas, but the Hogs are a big, strong, athletic team that seems to be peaking at just the right time of the season and could pull the shocking second-round upset. WagerWeb.com lists UNC as 11-point betting favorites.

Sonny Weems scored a career-high 31 points, as Arkansas beat Indiana, 86-72, on Friday in its tournament opener. Darian Townes tallied 17 points and 12 rebounds for ninth-seeded Arkansas (23-11). Patrick Beverley chipped in 12 points for the Razorbacks, who had lost their previous four first-round games. It's the first time they are into the second round since 1999, when Arkansas beat Siena before losing to Iowa.

A few hours earlier, those Tar Heels (33-2) had blown Mount St. Mary's out of the RBC Center 113-74, scoring 29 fast-break points and collecting 60 points in the paint. Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough paced UNC with 21 points apiece.

Not only was it the most points in a game this season for North Carolina (which has won 12 games in a row), but the 113 was tied for the second-most for the Tar Heels in an NCAA Tournament game.

"They play the game the right way," Arkansas coach John Pelphrey said. "They don't turn it over a lot. They share the ball. They are a team. Tremendous depth. As fast as anybody we will play, make or miss [a shot].

"It's Carolina."

The Razorbacks last played a top-ranked team in the tournament 12 years ago, when they lost to Massachusetts 79-63 in the 1996 East Regional semifinals at Atlanta.

"It feels great [to win]," said Arkansas senior forward Sonny Weems, who hit 12 of 14 field-goal attempts and 4 of 4 free throws against Indiana. "We feel if we can play one of our best games against Carolina that we can move this thing forward."

Arkansas has not faired well away from Fayetteville, winning only six of 18 games on the road or at neutral sites. Pelphrey's squad is, however, 6-1 this season against ranked opponents.

Weems is likely to see a lot of Carolina's stellar defenders Marcus Ginyard and Danny Greene on Sunday, and Townes, a 6-10, 243-pound force inside, will try to match muscle and moves with UNC's Hansbrough, likely the national player of the year.

The Razorbacks also can call on bigs Steven Hill (7-0, 245) and Charles Thomas (6-8, 231), who come off the bench.

Ginyard and Greene alternate as defensive stoppers for Carolina, and if they can handle Weems, the Razorbacks are in trouble. Both players have the size at 6-5 and the athleticism to contain Weems.

Prediction: Good news for Arkansas - the Heels like to run, but the Razorbacks are 12-0 this season when scoring 80 points or more. However, UNC is 22-1 in NCAA tournament games played in the state of North Carolina. UNC makes it 23-1, although I think the Hogs cover the number.

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