Monday, March 17, 2008

March Madness odds: West Virginia vs. Arizona


2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket


The University of Arizona kept alive the longest active streak of consecutive NCAA Tournament berths with No. 24 on Sunday, but the Wildcats are slight betting underdogs at WagerWeb.com to last more than a round in the Big Dance.

Arizona (19-14) overcame coach Lute Olson's leave of absence and key injuries to draw their 24th straight NCAA berth and, as a No. 10 seed, will face seventh-seeded West Virginia (24-10) in Washington on Thursday night in the West Region.

Arizona got in despite going 8-10 in the Pac-10 and got a bid over Arizona State, which beat the Wildcats twice this season. Only Tennessee played a harder schedule this season than the Wildcats, however, and UA finished No. 40 in the RPI.

"It's really difficult as a team to sit here and feel like we did something special because it's been done over and over again for 23 years," interim coach Kevin O'Neill said. "But in my own mind, I think this team did something special this year in that they fought through so many things on so many fronts and never gave in."

WVU was happy with the draw - especially the travel discrepancy. West Virginia is a short commute - a 3 1/4-hour, 206-mile drive, while the Wildcats of the Pac-10 have to travel 2,270 miles.

"It's going to be like a home game for us," point guard Darris Nichols said.

"That's a hard 10 seed," WVU coach Bob Huggins said. "Generally, a 10 seed is a conference winner in a mid-major conference, a good team that generally doesn't have the size and the athleticism that a team
like Arizona has."

This is the 16th NCAA Tournament for Huggins and the first since 2005, his final season at Cincinnati. That was the last of 14 straight appearances. He coached Kansas State to the NIT last season.West Virginia, with Joe Alexander averaging 27 points in the regular season's final six games, enters the NCAA Tournament having won four of its past five games, six of eight and eight of 11.

Arizona, meanwhile, lost four of its past six games, five of eight and eight of 12.

West Virginia's ability to force turnovers away from its opponents is one of its strongest attributes. West Virginia forces nearly 16 miscues per game, so the Wildcats will have to watch out for Mountaineers defenders trying to grab steal. Arizona, though, only averages 12.1 turnovers per game. However, AU ranks No. 233 out of 328 Division I teams in rebounding margin and got outrebounded by 1.6 per game; WVU outrebounds teams by 2.5 per game.

Arizona is led by freshman Jerryd Bayless, whose 20 points per game ranked No. 3 in the Pac-10, the RPI's top-rated league. A 6-foot-3 guard, Bayless shoots 40.8 percent from 3-point range (58-for-142) and averages 4.1 assists per game.

Overall, Arizona fashioned a 5-9 record against teams that made the tournament: Two victories against Washington State, and others against Cal State-Fullerton, UNLV and Texas A&M.

West Virginia crafted the same record against NCAA invitees, beating Pitt, Connecticut, Winthrop, UMBC and Marquette. But just one of West Virginia's 10 losses came against a team that failed to reach the NCAA field: Cincinnati Jan. 30.

Just so you know, a No. 10 seed has advanced to at least the Sweet 16 11 times in the past 10 years.

Common opponents: None.

Prediction: WVU is the hotter team, but it is riding one player, Alexander. Arizona simply has more talent and will prevail.

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