Tuesday, March 25, 2008

March Madness odds: Washington St. vs. North Carolina


2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket


No team in the NCAA Tournament has looked more impressive heading into the Sweet 16 than No. 1 overall seed North Carolina.

The Heels routed Mount St. Mary's and Arkansas, scoring 100-plus points in both games. The offense is clicking at its best pace this season, as the Heels made a whopping 50 percent of their 3s and 67.7 percent of their shots in running away from the Razorbacks.

"We were pretty doggone good," UNC coach Roy Williams said of the effort.

That's why Thursday night's East Regional semfinal against No. 4 seed Washington State might be so fun, with the Heels currently 8-point betting favorites on WagerWeb.com.

The Cougars, who haven't been this far since 1941, held Winthrop to 40 points, 11 in the second half, in the first round. Wazzu then dismantled Notre Dame, holding the Irish to 41. Neither Winthrop nor Notre Dame shot better than 31 percent against Washington State.

"There's a big collision coming," said second-year Washington State coach Tony Bennett. "Isn't there?"

Washington State averages only 67 points per game, so it isn't likely to outscore Tyler Hansbrough and company, who average nearly 90.

"They are the most impressive team in the country in getting down the floor and scoring in transition, on your misses and makes," Bennett said. "We are playing against extreme talent."

The Cougars will counter with the nation's second-best defense, which is allowing 56 points per game – only 48 points to opponents outside the Pac-10.

Big Aron Baynes is one of the few players who can match up physically with Hansbrough, but Baynes must be careful not to pick up early fouls defending Hansbrough's quick moves. The Cougars will try to keep the ball out of Hansbrough's hands, a strategy that worked against Notre Dame big man Luke Harangody, who was held to 10 points -- half his average.Bennett describes Hansbrough as "probably the player of the year in the country." The 6-foot-9, 250-pound junior leads the Tar Heels with 22.8 points per game (11th in the nation) and 10.2 rebounds (17th).

"I think we can bother them," the Cougars' Kyle Weaver said. "It's hard to stop a team, to shut a team down, like North Carolina. But I think we can slow them down."

Ty Lawson leads the Tar Heels in scoring in the NCAA Tournament with 40 points. He was 13 of 28 from the field overall (four of seven on 3-pointers) and had 11 assists against no turnovers in the two games.

The Tar Heels and Cougars are comparable in size, but North Carolina leads the nation with an average rebound advantage of 11.6 per game. WSU ranks 152nd at 0.6.

Washington State will need big games from senior guards Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver to stay close. Low, the team's leading scorer had 18 in the win against Notre Dame, while Weaver had 15.

UNC also will have a huge homecourt advantage Thursday in that the game is being played in Charlotte. Think that doesn't matter? Teams playing second-round games in their home states shot an average of seven more free throws than their opponents. And UNC is 23-1 in NCAA games in the state.

This will be the 26th time that WSU is playing the No. 1 team in the nation -- always another Pac-10 team -- and it has lost all 25 of the previous games.

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