Monday, March 31, 2008

March Madness odds: Texas vs. Memphis


2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket

Half of the Final Four is set, with two No. 1 seeds already through to San Antonio. Can Memphis and Kansas make it a historic Final Foursome?

The South Region top-seeded Tigers (36-1) would seem to have the much tougher challenge on Sunday, having to face No. 2 seed Texas (31-6) - and in Houston, no less. The Longhorns are expected to have at least 20,000 of the 35,000 fans on their side in the
building.

And both teams play a fast, up tempo style, meaning points should be aplenty - Memphis is a 3.5-point betting favorite with an over/under of 143.5 on WagerWeb.com.

"I think you can erase the shot clock, because I don't think any of us are going to need it," Texas junior guard A.J. Abrams said.

Told that Memphis coach John Calipari threw out a score of 106-102, Texas coach Rick Barnes didn't see anything outrageous about it. He just wanted to know which team would have 106.

The Tigers have cracked the 80-point barrier 18 times this season and hit 90 on eight occasions. The Longhorns have hit 80 in a dozen games and topped 90 five times.

Two of the nation's best point guards will be pushing the action: Freshman Derrick Rose of Memphis and sophomore D.J. Augustin of the Longhorns. However, will Texas sharpshooter Abrams be able to get his shot off against Memphis' 6-6 Antonio Anderson (who totally shut down Michigan State star Drew Neitzel)? Plus, Rose is much bigger than Augustin, so the Tigers' length on the perimeter is a huge plus.The 6-3 Rose erupted for a career-high 27 points against Michigan State, along with five assists and four rebounds. In three NCAA games, he's averaging better than 20 points. Augustin (at 6-foot) piled up 23 points and seven assists against Stanford, and he and Abrams may constitute the nation's best backcourt.

"We are not the biggest guards in the country so we are going to have our hands full," said Abrams, who at 5-foot-11 is four inches shorter than any of Memphis' starters. "At the same time, we know what we have to do, how to read the screens. We'll be fine."

In the frontcourt, Texas center Connor Atchley will make Memphis 6-9 forward Joey Dorsey run all over the place. Memphis 6-9 forward Robert Dozier will be forced to guard the perimeter while matched up with UT swingman Damion James, who has been arguably the team's best player in the tournament, averaging 14.7 points and 10.0 rebounds.

Make no mistake; both teams give more than lip service to defense. The Tigers held Michigan State's Raymar Morgan and Neitzel scoreless in the first half en route to a stunning 50-20 lead. The Longhorns limited Stanford to three field goals and 11 points in nearly the final 13 minutes of their regional semifinal.

Memphis' free-throw shooting woes have been well-documented at only 59.8 percent. However, Texas isn't a whole lot better at 68 percent.

Betting trends: Memphis is 3-8 overall ATS in its last 11 games . Memphis is 16-9-2 overall ATS, Texas is 17-13-1 . Memphis is 20-17 overall against the over/under, while UT is 14-17.

Prediction: Memphis appears to have superior talent. But Barnes is 7-0 in NCAA tournament games in the Lone Star State, and that homecourt advantage does mean something. Plus, all four No. 1 seeds have never made the Final Four, meaning one likely has to lose today - and that's Memphis. Also love the over.

No comments: