2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket
Undoubtedly the marquee matchup of the Elite Eight takes place in the second game Saturday night in the East Regional final between No. 3 seed Louisville and No. 1 overall seed North Carolina, with the Tar Heels 5.5-point betting favorites (154.5 over/under) on WagerWeb.com.
One thing's for sure: It should be the closest either team has played in the NCAA tournament. North Carolina has blown out its three opponents by an average of 30.3 points, and Louisville checks in at 22.3 points.
The location of tonight's game - Charlotte - would seem to be a huge edge for the Heels. The Heels are 8-0 in NCAA Tournament games in Charlotte and haven't had to leave the state since March 1, rolling through the ACC tournament, followed by the first two weekends of the NCAA tournament in Raleigh and Charlotte.
However, Louisville coach Rick Pitino is 3-0 in NCAA Tournament games in Charlotte, including a pair of wins in 1993 that sent Kentucky to the Final Four. Louisville is just 7-7 in NCAA Tournament play in Charlotte overall.
"You guys think it's a heck of a lot bigger advantage than I do," Heels coach Roy Williams said. "I don't believe that crap."
Incidentally, Pitino and Williams are tied with Bob Knight for sixth place in NCAA istory with five Final Four appearances. Tonight's winner will tie Adolph Rupp and Denny Crum for fourth place.
North Carolina's balance has been impressive thus far. When All-American Tyler Hansbrough didn't manage a field goal in the first half Thursday against Washington State, reserve Danny Green scored 15 points. For the tournament, point guard Ty Lawson is averaging 17 points while Wayne Ellington is averaging 16 points on the perimeter to complement Hansbrough inside.
"They're all playing terrific," Pitino said. "It's not one player. They've got great balance. You could make a case for about five, six or seven of their players, which is one of the reasons they're playing great."
David Padgett has been a do-everything center for the Cardinals. Louisville got great defense from reserve wing Earl Clark, who blocked two 3-point shots by Tennessee's Chris Lofton. He can bother the North Carolina shooters. Forward Terrence Williams is perhaps the toughest matchup problem for the Tar Heels.
They key matchup will be Padgett, who was originally recruited by Williams at Kansas and played a year there before transferring when Williams got the UNC job, against Hansbrough."He's a great player, having a great season," Padgett said of his counterpart.
The Cardinals took off this season once Padgett returned from injury. Now pain free, he is averaging 11.4 points and 4.6 rebounds, but his contributions go beyond numbers.
"He's the most experienced player we have on our team," guard Andre McGee said. "He's about 26 years old. He's been playing college basketball for so long. His basketball I.Q. is off the charts."
A pleasant surprise for Pitino has been Clark. In the last seven games, the sophomore has averaged a team-leading 14.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.3 blocks.
Expect Louisville to use plenty of the 2-3 zone defenses that was so effective in ending Tennessee's season Thursday night.
The Cardinals have taken that defense to a different level lately. Their size, depth and athleticism allow them to pressure the ball, drop back to clog the inside or close out on perimeter shooters just when an open look seems to beckon. The Vols shot only 34 percent from the field in Thursday's loss and missed 15 of 20 3-pointers.
"They do present a lot of problems with the zone," Williams said. "Part of it is because of their size, but part of it is because of their speed. They can close out on you very quickly."
The Tar Heels are generally more efficient than Louisville on offense, shooting 57.7 percent in the tournament, but Louisville is shooting 55.8 percent in the tournament. The Cardinals' defense has been a constant all season and has been more reliable than UNC's. Oklahoma and Tennessee shot 31.9 percent and 33.9, respectively, against the Cardinals in the past two games.
Betting trends: The Cardinals are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, 4- against the spread in their last four games vs. an ACC opponent and 5-1 against the spread in their last six games versus an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. . UNC is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 Saturday games. Over is 7-3 in UNC's last 10 non-conference games. Over is 7-3-1 in UNC's last 11 overall. UNC is 23-11 ATS overall, Louisville is 20-12-1. UNC is 21-12 vs. over/under, Louisville is 12-20.
Prediction: This should be a stellar matchup, and it's almost a shame it has to take place before the Final Four. Still, you can't argue the Charlotte advantage for UNC. Heels win a close one, and the best bet in this game, I think, is the over.
No comments:
Post a Comment