Tuesday, March 25, 2008

March Madness odds: Louisville vs. Tennessee


2008 ncca tournament bracket
2008 ncca tournament schedule
NCAA tournament bracket


The final NCAA Tournament game taking place on Thursday night might be the best matchup of the entire Sweet 16 - No. 3 seed Louisville and No. 2 Tennessee (31-4) in an East Regional semifinal in Charlotte, with the Cardinals 2.5-point betting favorites on WagerWeb.com.

Louisville is favored despite being the lower seed, and part of that could be due to UT star Chris Lofton's status and struggles.

Lofton, a senior guard and the team's leading scorer at 15.5 points per game, apparently "tweaked" his ankle during Tennessee's 76-71 win over Butler in the second round.

Team spokesman Craig Pinkerton says Lofton wore a walking boot on his foot as a precaution while the Vols rested on Monday but was expected to play on Thursday.

Lofton had two forgettable games in the NCAA wins. He had only one field goal and missed all five of his 3-point attempts against American and scored only nine points against Butler. In the two games combined, he was 4-for-18 from the field and only 3-for-12 on 3-pointers.

There's no doubt he'll play, but he'll need to be 100 percent for the Vols to reach the Elite Eight for the first time.

The Cardinals just equaled their biggest winning margin in their tournament history, a 78-48 blowout of sixth-seeded Oklahoma in the second round. Louisville has outscored its opponents by 48 in their first two NCAA tournament games, the Vols only 20.

The Cards weren't truly pushed by Boise State or Oklahoma in the first two rounds. The Cards are making 3s (12 against Boise State and nine against Oklahoma) and limiting their opponents' 3s (4 of 17 for the Broncos and 5 of 18 for the Sooners). The Cardinals have shot over 50 percent in both their tournament games, including 59 percent against Oklahoma.

"I definitely think we are playing our best basketball right now," Louisville forward Terrance Farley said. "We are really clicking right now. We're really focusing in and getting wins."The Vols were only 5-of-19 on 3s against Butler. Committing 20 turnovers against the Bulldogs also is concerning.

Louisville beats you with its defense and rebounding. The Cardinals are deep, tall, long and fast. They come at you with a variety of pressure, using mostly a zone.

In its eight losses this season, U of L has made only 26.2 percent of its 3-point shots, so that is a key stat to watch.

UL's Earl Clark is on a tear in March. The sophomore forward is averaging 15 points his last three games, a figure he matched against Boise State.

Meanwhile, for both games in the NCAA Tournament, UT coach Bruce Pearl has started J.P. Prince at the point guard position in place of Ramar Smith.

Smith started for much of the Southeastern Conference season. But Pearl went with Prince because of Smith's lackluster play in recent weeks.

Prince played like a regular for nearly all of his 31 minutes on the floor against Butler, scoring nine points on 4-for-5 shooting to go with seven rebounds, five assists and a block. But also six turnovers.

"J.P. is a stat sheet stuffer,' Pearl said. "We got a situation where I felt like we needed (Prince) on the floor more because he makes great things happen. I think he makes everyone else out there better.'

Pearl didn't say who would start Thursday.

Both the Vols and Cardinals like to move up and down the floor, and neither team shoots free throws very well. They both hit about 65 percent. Louisville's David Padgett, a 6-11 senior who averages in double figures, could be a tough matchup inside for the Vols.

Prediction: Louisville is playing as well as anyone and will set up a mammoth clash with North Carolina by beating Tennessee - and covering.

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