If history is any indication, top-seeded Kansas (33-3) will win Friday night's Midwest Regional semifinal against No. 12 seed Villanova (22-12). Why am I so sure?
Since the NCAA Tournament expanded its field to 64 teams in 1985, a team seeded 12th has lost to the No. 1 seed 13 times without a single victory.
Not to mention the Jayhawks lead the nation in scoring margin (20.0 points per game); have shot nearly 51 percent from the field; have scored 80 or more points 20 times; has four players 6-9 or taller; hold opponents to just 38 percent shooting; and have five players averaging 9.5 points or better, including leading scorers Darrell Arthur, a forward, and guard Brandon Rush, who both average 13 points.
The Jawhawks' losses are to Texas (72-69), Kansas State (84-75) and Oklahoma State (61-60). Kansas, a 12-point betting favorite on WagerWeb.com, has won nine straight.
Villanova coach Jay Wright said watching films of the Jayhawks "impressed me a lot." With a laugh, he added, "and discouraged me a little bit."
But the Wildcats have seen their share of tough opponents this season as well. In the Big East Conference, they played tournament teams Georgetown, Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette, Connecticut, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame.
"I think us being in the Big East is an advantage," guard Reggie Redding said. "We get to match up against different teams every night who are going to bring it. The versatility that we have as a team, I think we can match up against anybody in the country."Villanova is a guard-oriented team led by sophomore Scottie Reynolds. He scored 21 points in the Wildcats' first-round win against No. 5 seed Clemson and 25 in the next round against No. 13 Siena. Reynolds totaled seven more assists, shot 14 of 29 from the floor, and was 8-for-12 on 3s in 72 minutes.
Other than Reynolds (16.0 points) and power forward Dante Cunningham (10.4 points, 6.5 rebounds), the Wildcats aren't very experienced and they're small.
But the maturation of three freshmen - guards Corey Stokes and Corey Fisher, along with forward Antonio Pena - and the insertion of little-used junior Dwayne Anderson helped Villanova regroup from a five-game losing streak. Since losing to Saint Joseph's, 77-55, on Feb. 4 and falling to 13-8, the Wildcats went 7-4 through the Big East season, all the losses to top 20 teams.
However, Villanova will be without sophomore Casiem Drummond, who broke his ankle in the first half of last weekend's second-round game against Siena. His loss leaves Villanova's tallest players at 6-foot-8.
"Cas was a great player, and he can come in at any time and give you a break in the inside," Cunningham said. "It definitely changes things."
Not only will Drummond's big body be unavailable, but so will his five fouls, an often-needed token of depth when going against the likes of KU's Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun.
Against the spread: Villanova 14-17, Kansas 20-14.
Prediction: Wildcats cover, barely.
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